UFC 234 takes place Saturday, February 9 at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, Australia The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the full odds for the card, and here they are.
UFC 234 Opening Odds
Robert Whittaker -245
Kelvin Gastelum +175
Israel Adesanya -400
Anderson Silva +280
Rani Yahya -175
Ricky Simon +135
Devonte Smith -230
Dong Hyun Kim +170
Jim Crute -245
Ryan Spann +175
Shane Young -275
Austin Arnett +195
Montana de la Rosa -120
Nadia Kassem -120
Kai Kara-France -245
Raulian Paiva +175
Kyung Ho Kang -305
Teruto Ishihara +225
Lando Vannata -275
Marcos Rosa +195
Jalin Turner -300
Callan Potter +220
Jonathan Martinez -180
Wuliji Buren +140
And here are my initial reactions to the 234 opening odds:
- I’m loving the main event between Whittaker and Gastelum. It’s a fight between two former welterweights who have looked exceptional at middleweight, especially Whittaker, the middleweight champion. That being said, I think there may be some value on Gastelum here. Whittaker has been taking a ton of damage in recent fights and has dealt with numerous injuries. Gastelum matches up pretty well with Whittaker and I am expecting a very competitive fight here, so to me it’s dog-or-pass. I just think you have to take a shot at the plus money here on Gastelum in what looks like close to an even fight to me on paper.
- The co-main event looks like a mismatch, however. As dominant as Silva once was, he’s a shell of his former self and hasn’t fought in forever. It’s pretty clear the UFC booked this fight to get Adesanya a highlight-reel win over a Hall of Famer. I fully expect Adesanya to catch Silva on the chin and put him away, and I expect him to be a popular parlay piece. Some are of the mindset that this fight could go the distance, but to me Adesanya is going to get to the finish and I would be chasing that prop.
- Another favorite on the main card who I like is Crute. I think the young Aussie has the potential to be a light heavyweight contender for years to come, and Alvey is just a gatekeeper. For some reason, the early public action has come in on Alvey and the fight is basically a Pick ’em now. At those kind of odds, you have to bet on Crute as a small favorite given his advantages in age, athleticism, and of course fighting in his hometown.
- A couple of other fighters who I believe should win their fights include Vannata, who should beat Rosa and save his UFC career; Kang, who should be able to top Ishihara (who needs to be faded); and Martinez, as Buren is another guy on this card who needs to be faded.
- The early prelims feature a number of fighters who have limited experience in the Octagon, and anytime that happens I always caution against going heavy. Of course, it’s worth digging into some of these newcomers to see if any of the dogs can pull through, but I would rather go heavy on fighters who have proven themselves in the Octagon rather than lay the juice on relative unknowns.
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