Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the women’s strawweight title fight between Polish champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and challenger Rose Namajunas at UFC 217.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (Record: 14-0, -700 Favorite, Power Ranking: A++)
The UFC strawweight champion enters her sixth title defense with an unblemished professional record of fourteen wins and no losses. She’s coming off a record breaking performance against Jessica Andrade in which she landed a UFC record 225 significant strikes in a fight.
The five-time IFMA world champion is without question the top striker in the strawweight division. Her muay thai accolades speak volumes about her ability on the feet. The first female European champion in UFC history, Jedrzejczyk lands strikes with a fantastic volume of 6.87 significant strikes per minute in the octagon. Perhaps even more impressive is that she only absorbs 2.43 significant strikes a minute for a difference of over four strikes per minute or over 100 strikes over a 25 minute contest compared to her opponents. The champion does a great job of putting pressure on her opponents and firing off combinations. Once she sees an opening, she fires five or six shots in combination. In a striking contest, she’s going to be very difficult to beat due to the volume with which she is able to throw. The champion has combined that striking arsenal with stout takedown defense. She’s defended 81% of takedowns attempted on her. Even in her title fight with Claudia Gadelha, Jedrzejczyk defended 9 of 13 takedowns successfully against perhaps the top wrestler in the division. In short, she forces her opponents to compete with her in a stand up contest and that’s a battle she hasn’t lost yet in her MMA career.
Rose Namajunas (Record: 6-3, +500 Underdog, Power Ranking: B+)
The Milwaukee, Wisconsin-born strawweight looked like a breakout star coming off The Ultimate Fighter in which she lost the inaugural title fight to Carla Esparza. It took some time for Namajunas to regain form, but she’s back in title contention coming off a head kick that floored Michelle Waterson. Namajunas then followed up with a grappling attack which saw her win by rear naked choke to put her in the title fight at UFC 217.
The 303 Training Center fighter has made significant improvements in recent fights to really become a well-rounded fighter. Her striking continues to improve immensely as she uses her long frame for the division to maintain distance and land both punches and kicks in combination. Her volume is mid-tier in the division landing 3.51 significant strikes per minute. Even in her fight with Karolina Kowalkiewicz in which it was mainly a standing contest, she only landed 70 significant strikes over 15 minutes. Namajunas is most dangerous with her kicks; she has long legs and really good flexibility. It allows her to land with head kicks with very little setup like she did in the Waterson fight. What has made Namajunas into a true title contender is her grappling game. She’s secured at least one takedown in each of her fights in the UFC. Furthermore, she averages a whopping 3.02 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. Her offensive wrestling and aggression on the ground saw her completely dominate Paige Vanzant and Michelle Waterson on the mat. When she gets opponents to the mat, she has good ground and pound combined with an underrated submission game. She hasn’t been put on her back of late, but early in career she was exposed by the top heavy wrestling game of Carla Esparza.
Matchup
With Joanna Jedrzejczyk having beaten nearly everyone at the top of the strawweight division, a fight with Rose Namajunas was inevitable. Considering that the champion has faced and beaten the likes of Jessica Andrade, Claudia Gadelha, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the last two years, one has to wonder what Namajunas brings to the table that can challenge her. From a stand up perspective, there is a big advantage for the champion. Namajunas simply cannot keep up with the output. From a striking angle, Jedrzejczyk is most similar to Kowalkiewicz. When Namajunas fought Kowalkiewicz, she had success in the first round and then really struggled to keep up with the Polish fighter. Assuming the fight stays standing, I’d expect more of the same. Jedrzejczyk would dominate the striking from round two on and cruise to a victory. The champion will not allow Namajunas to strike from range, she’ll force her to fight from close range which will nullify the American’s best striking weapon; her kicks. If Namajunas is to get the upset, she’ll need to get Jedrzejczyk to the mat. The champion has very good takedown defense (81%), but she has been taken down in three of her past four fights. Namajunas will need to act fast if she earns takedowns as Joanna does well to get back to her feet. The opportunities Namajunas will have to secure takedowns and furthermore submissions are slim at best. Like her other title defenses, I expect the champion to dominate the striking exchanges and to either earn a late TKO or a dominant decision victory. Jedrzejczyk -5.5 (-280) should be given strong parlay consideration given that she should win at least four rounds of this bout. I think this is a safer angle as I see both decision and TKO/KO as realistic scenarios in this matchup.
