UFC 159 Betting Odds Breakdown: Lightweights Jim Miller vs. Pat Healy

Jim MillerUFC 159: April 27, 2013 Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey UFC Lightweight Contender Jim Miller (-305) Profile: Scrappy lightweight contender and younger brother of UFC veteran Dan Miller, Jim Miller (22-4) has come within a win of a title shot in the lightweight division on multiple occasions. He’s the perpetual contender and one-time owner of a seven-fight winning streak in the Octagon, Miller was widely thought to be the next big thing. Eventual lightweight champ Benson Henderson would break his winning streak in August of 2011, then Miller would bounce back with an impressive submission of Melvin Guillard. Then, in a title eliminator fight, Miller would be overwhelmed by the lengthy stand-up of Nate Diaz, leading him to be submitted in the second round. Miller rebounded once again with a Fight of the Night performance in a unanimous decision win against Joe Lauzon at the end of 2012, giving him the most all-time wins for a lightweight in UFC history. UFC Lightweight Contender Pat Healy (+225) Profile: Do not let his 16 losses fool you, Pat “Bam Bam” Healy (29-16) is legit competition for anyone who steps into the cage with him. He has wins in his career over Dan Hardy, Paul Daley, UFC interim welterweight champ Carlos Condit, going 8-1 in his previous nine fights, culminating in a five-fight winning streak originally earned him a shot at Strikeforce lightweight champion Gilbert Melendez’s belt. However, Melendez had to pull out of the fight due to an injury, leaving him to meet Kurt Holobaugh instead. Another victory later, the 29-year-old Oregon native is finally set to make his UFC debut against Miller at UFC 159. Opening UFC 159 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Miller a big -305 favorite (bet $305 to win $100) while Healy opened as a +225 underdog (bet $100 to win $225) at Several Bookmakers sportsbook. Size is about the only advantage Healy figures to have in this matchup since he stands three inches taller than Miller. Healy has spent much of his MMA career at welterweight, making him look like a giant at 155. And Miller has had trouble against bigger lightweights like Diaz, although he handled himself quite nicely against Lauzon too. The competition Miller has faced in the UFC is quite simply on another level compared to that of Healy, whose lone loss in his past 10 bouts came against Josh Thomson, another successful Strikeforce addition to the organization. Thomson took care of Diaz with a second-round TKO in his UFC debut at UFC on FOX 7 last Saturday, and some MMA bettors might assume another former Strikeforce fighter will pull off this week’s surprising upset based on what they saw last. But Miller is a smart mixed martial artist who does not need any motivation since his goal is to get a shot at the lightweight title. He showed in his last bout vs. Lauzon that he is clearly focused on reaching that goal and getting even better in the process. Healy probably hopes he will be overlooked in this spot, but that seems unlikely considering Miller simply can’t afford another setback here. Look for another brawl that could go the distance.

Written by MMA OddsBreaker

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