Canada’s capital will host it’s first UFC card this weekend, as TD Place in Ottawa welcomes the Octagon for UFC Fight Night 89. Some of the best fighters North of the border will be in action on Saturday, as a pair of former Canadian title contenders sit at the top of the card. Rory MacDonald will be taking on Stephen Thompson in a fight that could determine the next number one contender in the welterweight division. Back in 2009, Patrick Cote fell into a short notice middleweight title shot, but blew out his knee. After rehabbing, he lost another two fights in the UFC and was released. After returning two years later, he dropped down to the welterweight division, and has gone 5-1 since. Donald Cerrone has moved up to the welterweight division from the other side, going 2-0 in a couple of bouts at 170. Cote isn’t the only fighter from Quebec on the card either. Even though this card is being held in Ontario, there’s still a large Francophone presence, as Steve Bosse, Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Valerie LeTourneau, and Jonathan Meunier will all represent the province as well. The other most notable fights on the card feature TUF Nations winner Elias Theodorou looking to rebound from his first career loss, as he takes on Sam Alvey. Former bantamweight title contender Joe Soto has dropped three straight, and hopes to right the ship against TUF veteran Chris Beal. The odds had only been released previously for the top two fights on UFC Fight Night 89, as Rory MacDonald opened a -150 favorite (bet $150 to win $100) against Stephen Thompson, but the line has become a virtual pick em since then. The line has also tightened on Donald Cerrone, who opened -190 against Patrick Cote (+150), but now sits at -165. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the lines for the remaining 11 bouts at UFC Fight Night 89 today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Fox Sports 1, 10:30pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 2, 8:30pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 6:45pm ET)
——————– Brad’s Analysis: Steve Bosse hits hard, and Sean O’Connell has been knocked out a couple times in the UFC, but I think O’Connell is going to be able to give Bosse a lot of trouble in this fight. As long as he doesn’t get clipped in the very early going, I see his pace and work inside wearing Bosse down allowing for a late finish. As a dog, I’m tempted, but this fight seems destined to end in a TKO, so I may hold out for some props. Thibault Gouti was rocked, got his back taken, and was choked out in less than 30 seconds in his UFC debut. Olivier Aubin-Mercier likely won’t rock him on the feet, as that’s still a work in progress, but his ability to get takedowns and secure back control is some of the best in MMA. I would be surprised if these 15 minutes go by without the Canadian securing Gouti’s back. He may not scored a finish, but I think Aubin-Mercier gets back on track here comfortably. I’ve thought Joanne Calderwood has been overrated for nearly her entire UFC tenure, and she hasn’t done much to assuage those feelings. Still, despite this being the toughest fight she’s had in the Octagon, I have a sneaking suspicion that she pulls this one off. Not with her striking, but with takedowns and top control. It will be close, and the judges will be a concern that keep me from betting it right now, but I think she finally puts a good performance together. Activity (or lack thereof) is something I’ve really started to bet on (or against) of late. This is another case where I think that angle presents value — the first of two on this card. Leandro Silva is the better striker, but doesn’t pull the trigger. Wrestling is probably slightly in Saggo’s favor, and he’s a very solid top position grappler. Even if Saggo struggles to get top position and this remains on the feet, I think him being aggressive and throwing more than Silva will earn him a decision. I’m tempted at the opener, but the public seems to continually undervalue him, so I’ll take my chances and wait. One of these days, Misha Cirkunov is going to not get a finish early, gas, and get knocked out. It’s somewhat unlikely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it was this fight, as Cutelaba seems like the type of fighter who won’t go away easily, and has shown himself capable of scrambling back to his feet in the past. Again, I’m going to rely on the public though, as the hype on Cirkunov will probably push this line up, and I don’t want to take the shot unless Cutelaba hits at least +300. Every Krzysztof Jotko fight is a sweat regardless of which side you bet, and that’s why I’m going to pass on betting this one, even though I favor Jotko slightly to finish the job that Josh Samman started. Jotko getting finished by a similar lanky fighter in Magnus Cedenblad as looms large in my decision to pass this fight. Chris Beal has been a constant underperformer in the UFC. Even though he’s catching a fighter who seems to be on a decline with a fading chin in Joe Soto, I think that trend continues. Beal might land early and put Soto away, but if this fight lasts any decent amount of time, I expect Soto to finally utilize his wrestling a bit in the UFC and wear Beal down. The price is oddly low given their relative levels of competition, but it is hard to trust Soto right now. The second “activity” fight is Elias Theodorou vs. Sam Alvey. Alvey’s path to victory in every fight is the same, land one punch that changes everything. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that against Theodorou who will be constantly throwing strikes and attempting takedowns (even if Alvey is able to fend the majority of them off). I just see this as one fighter controlling the entire 15 minutes, and I think Theodorou is going to be too difficult to stop. If Randa Markos was better in the third round, she would be a contender in a strawweight division that desperately needs more of them. Unfortunately, she’s not, and that means betting her is almost contingent on thinking she wins the first two rounds. She probably does that against Lybarger, but if she has a couple of lazy moments in top control she could lose position, or I could see this being tight enough on the feet to go either way early. If anything, I’ll look at taking a shot on Lybarger if this climbs up near +200. Facing a tough wrestler in your short notice UFC debut as a fighter who rarely goes out of the first round sounds like a recipe for disaster, and that’s the spot that Jonathan Meunier is in. I don’t like his chances much against Colby Covington based on what I’ve seen on tape, but perhaps Meunier’s massive size for a welterweight can help him stonewall some of Covington’s takedown attempts. I expect a lot of bettors to be on Geane Herrera in this fight, and I hope that’s the case, because I think Ali Bagautinov outwrestles him as thoroughly as Ray Borg did, if not worse. Herrera is definitely a talent to watch out for moving forward, but the UFC hasn’t done him any favors with his early booking in the Octagon.