Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC on FOX 19

Dustin-PoirierUFC on FOX 19 Date: April 16, 2016 Arena: Amalie Arena City: Tampa, FL The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Tampa, FL for the second time in promotional history with UFC on FOX 19: Teixeira vs Evans. The 12-fight card kicks off with Fight Pass prelims at 4pm ET, then preliminary card action continues on FOX at 6pm ET, with the main card getting going on the same channel at 8pm ET. If interested in wagering on any bouts for this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. My Fights to AVOID betting are: Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson (-125) vs Hacran Dias (+105) Gabe’s Thoughts: .With the Lyoto Machida vs Dan Henderson co-main event contest being canceled, this bout has been promoted from the preliminary card to the first card on the main card. I think this is a close fight and think Swanson should be a -150 betting favorite. I can’t blame anybody for playing Swanson at these odds, but for me personally, it will have to be a fight I avoid at the sportsbook this weekend. If Swanson shows up hungry, focus and with a newfound love for the sport, which he claims to have, then I think he will get his hand raised, but I am just not confident that is the case with him. I will have to tune in on Saturday to see which Cub Swanson shows up, and I will be leaving my wallet out of it. Gabe’s Call: Swanson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Bantamweight bout: John Dodson (-550) vs Manvel Gamburyan (+425) Gabe’s Thoughts: I do believe that Dodson is a well-deserved heavy favorite heading into this match-up, but I do not agree with his current offering price of -550. I think he should be a -300 favorite, so at these odds, I see value in Gamburyan and think this is a “dog or pass” situation. Normally, I don’t pass up on this kind of value, but I am feeling less risky this week, so I’m going to opt to play it safe and avoid this scrap at the sportsbook this weekend. Gabe’s Call: Dodson by T/KO (punches, 2:06 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Welterweight bout: Michael Graves (-105) vs Randy Brown (-115) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Graves should be a slight -130 betting favorite into this contest, so I can’t blame anybody for taking a shot on him at his current offering price of -105, but personally, I don’t think there is enough value for me to pull the trigger on a play. Graves and Brown are both solid prospects in the UFC’s welterweight division and this bout will determine which of them continues to climb up the ladder. I expect this to be a fun fight, so I will avoid betting it, and will make sure to sit back and enjoy. Gabe’s Call: Graves by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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