Bellator 95 Betting Preview

Bellator 95Bellator turns it up a notch with quite the show on paper for Bellator 95. Not only does the main card feature the featherweight title fight between Pat Curran and Shahbulat Shamhalaev, but we also get the middleweight tournament finals, the featherweight tournament finals, and a hell of a fight in Karo Parisyan vs. Rick Hawn. Damn you, Spike for stealing away our Thursday nights! Oh well. Bellator featherweight champ Pat Curran (18-4) has looked fantastic since losing to Eddie Alvarez in a bid to take away the former champ’s lightweight belt. Since that fight at Bellator 39, Curran has gone 5-0 with a brutal win over Joe Warren to get the featherweight belt and a split-decision victory over Patricky ‘Pitbull’ Freire to retain his championship at Bellator 85. His opponent was originally scheduled to be Daniel Straus, but after a broken hand and subsequent a run-in with the law, Straus is out and the next featherweight tournament winner is in — Shahbulat Shamhalaev (21-1-1). Curran is big, well-rounded featherweight; he’s comfortable on the ground and his striking has looked more impressive with each bout. Shamhalaev has wowed the US-based Bellator audience with three brutal emphatic knockouts (all in the first round) to bring him to his title shot. This is quite the even bout, with Curran never being the victim of a knockout and and Shamhalaev only losing in the beginning of his career to Khabib Nurmagomedov. The question is if Curran will stand and trade with the Russian? Curran opened as a -175 favorite (bet $175 to win $100) with Shamulaev as a +135 underdog (bet $100 to win $135) at Several Bookmakers. The public has surprisingly brought that line down, considering many believe Curran to be one of the top 5 featherweights in the world. He now sits at -140, with Shamulaev a +120 underdog. The Bellator middleweight division hosts consistently stellar fights and this season eight middleweight tournament final is no exception. Brett Cooper (19-7) has been spending the better part of two years inching back at a rematch with middleweight champ Alexander Shlemenko, and now only hard-hitting Doug Marshall (17-6) stands in his way. Cooper comes off an emotional come from behind win over Dan Cramer at Bellator 92, where he was down two rounds to zero with his back against the cage until he knocked Cramer out in spectacular fashion. Marshall was able to pull out a split-decision win over Sultan Aliev that many thought was downright wrong. Aliev dominated Marshall on the ground, but caused little to no damage, and with Marshall jawing his way through the fight with Aliev on top of him doing nothing much, the judges awarded the slugger the fight. There’s little hyperbole in the description of Aliev vs. Marshall, trust me. Matchmaking wise, this fight looks like a war on paper. Both of these guys enjoy slugfests with Marshall holding the edge in the stand up department. Cooper used to be known as a pure slugger, but in the last two years he’s developed his ground game with Mark Munoz and co. at Reign training center, and it’s shown. This is a close fight, and both men could end it in a myriad of ways, with Cooper holding the advantage on the ground. Cooper opened as a -265 favorite, with the comeback on Marshall at +185. The line has moved slightly further in Cooper’s favor, as he is now -290, with Marshall +230. Bettors seem to be on track to many of the same grappling advantages that Cooper holds which Aliev also possessed against Marshall, but without worries of inactivity and fatigue. As Pat Curran defends his featherweight strap against Shahbulat Shamhalaev, another featherweight tournament final comes to a close as Frodo Khasbulaev (20-5) puts his impressive seven fight winning streak on the line against Mike Richman (15-2). In their 35 combined wins, their have only been four decisions, so expect this one to be a ridiculously exciting fight. Frodo has looked fantastic, dominating everyone put in his way on the ground or on the feet. He’s yet to go to the judges in Bellator, with 2 TKO wins and 2 submission wins, the most recent over Marlon Sandro. Richman made it to the finals with a dramatic come from behind victory at Bellator 92 against Alexandre Bezerra, in which he was dominated in the first round and nearly finished, only to storm back and take the split-decision. Both of these men are quality fighters, and you have to once again acknowledge the scouting talents of Bellator. Frodo has looked unbeatable, and Richman is only two fights removed from a TKO loss to Pat Curran’s main event opponent, Shahbulat Shamhalaev. So one has to wonder who is more confident coming into this finals. Khasbulaev opened as a slight -165 favorite, but the public has been behind him since the get go. He is now a healthy -250 favorite. Obviously that means Richman’s opening +125 line has gotten significantly longer, as he now sits almost 2-to-1 at +190. Dominating performances against Fabricio Guerreiro and Marlon Sandro have obviously created a good impression in bettors minds. They may be on to something, as Khasbulaev’s ground game was showcased in both fights, while Richman struggled at times on the mat against Alexandre Bezerra. The last time we saw Rick Hawn (14-2) , he was being dominated by Bellator lightweight champ, Michael Chandler at Bellator 85. After making it to the title shot and through the lightweight tournament, Hawn has decided to rehydrate and move back up to 170 where he feels a bit more comfortable. His opponent is no stranger to fans of the sport, Karo Parisyan (22-9), makes his return to a big stage after leaving the UFC for a second time following a quick loss to Dennis Hallman at UFC 123. This is basically the battle of Judo players, as Hawn was a 2004 US Olympic Judo team member, and Karo Parisyan has long been known as arguably the greatest Judo practitioner in MMA (until a girl he helped train came around named Ronda Rousey). This will be interesting to see, as Karo has had a rough patch recently, winning only three out of his last seven fights after dealing with substance problems. He’s strung two wins together for the first time in years, so hopefully he can use that momentum to put on a performance like the Karo of old, as Rick Hawn will be looking to boost himself up on Karo’s name if he can pull off an impressive win. Will they test their Judo, or will this be a striking battle? We look forward to finding out. Rick Hawn opened at -265, and the line has been pounded ever since. He is now a huge -465 favorite, pointing to thoughts that Parisyan isn’t back to his old form. For his part, Parisyan opened at +185 and is now +340. Bellator 95 will air live on Spike TV on Thursday, April 4th, at 10pm. As always, the undercard will also be streaming on Spike.com

Written by Jason Nawara

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Bellator 95 Opening Betting Odds

Bellator 95 Picks: Middleweight Final Brett Cooper (-300) vs. Doug Marshall (+250)