The UFC continues gearing up to their annual Super Bowl weekend card as big Fox will play host to UFC on Fox 18 during Super Bowl media week. After the ratings success that last weekend’s bantamweight title bout ended up being, the organization has to be hoping for more of the same with continued publicity during Fox’s NFL playoff broadcasts. The fans who do tune in — to what seems less glamorous than the average Fox card — should be rewarded with some fine entertainment however, as this card will determine the next light heavyweight title challenger, and also showcases some upcoming stars in the promotion. Anthony Johnson and Ryan Bader occupy the main event slot, although if the fight plays out as the current odds suggest (Rumble is a -400 favorite after opening up at -350) it won’t last nearly that long. The Fox portion of the card also features heavyweights Josh Barnett (currently -160) and Ben Rothwell, bantamweights Jimmie Rivera (-170) and Iuri Alcantara, and the UFC’s latest pet project, Sage Northcutt (-400) against Andrew Holbrook. Only one preliminary bout is lined thus far, as veterans welterweights Tarec Saffiedine (-245) and Jake Ellenberger desperately try to get back on track, Saffiedine from injuries and Ellenberger from a string of poor performances. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the remainder of the card today at Several Bookmakers, which includes six bouts on Fox Sports 1, and another three on UFC Fight Pass. ——————– MAIN CARD (FOX, 8pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox Sports 1, 5pm ET)
——————– PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass, 3:30pm ET)
——————– Updated Opening Odds For Replacement Fight: Bryan Barberena +185 Sage Northcutt -265 Over 1.5 -165 Under 1.5 +125 — Brad’s Analysis: Carlos Diego Ferreira has not panned out quite like I thought he would in the UFC. He started off well enough, but has proven too passive in his most recent performances, letting his opponent dictate the fight. I see that again being his downfall here, as Olivier Aubin-Mercier will be the more aggressive fighter whether these two remain on the feet, or in attempting to secure takedowns. If it does hit the ground, I see this as a stalemate, and the fight could end up looking like Ferreira’s loss to Beneil Dariush. The King is back from Antonio Carlos Jr. trying to turn the tables and go all King Lear on him, putting out his eye. This time, he faces a much different challenge, as Rafael Natal isn’t nearly as physically imposing as ‘Shoeface’. Natal is the better overall striker here and would do well to keep the bout at kicking range. However, he isn’t a big threat with his power, which could allow Casey to move forward and land with his improved boxing. It will be interesting to see who, if either, decides to initiate grappling in this fight, as both men have solid ground games and have been known to tire later in fights. This could be yet another spot where Casey comes in extremely undervalued by the public in a tough, but winnable, fight. Dustin Ortiz fights are close, and fun. The man just has a way of getting into exchanges and scrambles that are a joy to watch. Wilson Reis, on the other hand, normally has close fights that are relatively boring. I’m interested to see which fighter’s style dictates this fight, but I have a feeling it will be Ortiz, and he’ll end up taking a decision because of it. This is the type of bout where I wouldn’t hesitate to bet the +3.5 points handicap on either fighter as an underdog, because however it plays out, we could all be scratching our heads going to the scorecards. George Sullivan has been all over the map in terms of his UFC performances thus far. He looked great early on, terrified against Tim Means, and then had quite a bit of trouble against a short notice Dom Waters. I think he’ll benefit by facing a smaller welterweight in this fight, as he should be able to employ his pressure wrestling against Alexander Yakovlev, whose only highlights in the UFC thus far have been surviving against Demian Maia, and beating up the corpse of Gray Maynard (in Yakovlev’s lone 155lb bout). I don’t see myself betting Sullivan here however. Masio Fullen seems like the fighter the UFC keeps in their back pocket to get a struggling featherweight a win. After losing three in a row, Alex Caceres definitely qualifies as struggling, and this is the perfect pick-me-up. Taking his absurd loss against Edwin Figueroa out of the equation, Caceres has only lost to ranked bantamweights and Masanori Kanehara (who has been competitive with some of the best in the division). Fullen is a massive step down in competition for him, and I expect Caceres to handle his business here, even if he does put himself in a compromising position or two along the way. Damon Jackson has found phenomenal ways to lose in the Octagon thus far, and while Levan Makashvili isn’t the dynamic finisher that Yancy Medeiros or Rony Jason is, he should be the better wrestler than Jackson, and the former Legacy champ isn’t much of a threat on the feet. I have to think these fighters continue trending in the directions we’ve seen thus far in the UFC. Tony Martin is right up at the top of the list of fighters you absolutely cannot trust. He might come out, take Felipe Olivieri down and submit him immediately, and I still wouldn’t go anywhere near Martin in his next fight. Oliveiri is dangerous enough on the feet to hurt Martin, and active enough on the ground to keep himself out of bad positions. I’d be interested to see how this fight will play out in the second and third rounds, as Martin always slows down late and we haven’t seen enough of Oliveiri late in fights to know how he’ll look. Randy Brown has some hype behind him, but he’s still extremely raw and I haven’t seen enough of him to really feel confident. Dwyer has already proven better in the UFC than anyone expected, and this could be another spot where he ends up extremely undervalued. A more seasoned, lanky striker could be the type of guy that gives a raw fighter like Brown some serious problems. If the public backs the debuting fighter and pushes this line further, I’ll probably have to take a shot on the underdog.