UFC on Fuel TV 8: Weigh-In Recap & Betting Line Movement

Struve Hunt weigh-inThe 22 fighters competing on the UFC on Fuel TV 8 card from Saitama, Japan weighed-in on Friday night (Saturday morning in Japan). While many fighters needed the services of the towel used to keep the broadcast PG, only Diego Sanchez missed weight. Sanchez — who has struggled with the cut to lightweight in the past — tipped the scales at 158lbs, meaning that he will forfeit 20% of his purse to opponent Takanori Gomi. To put that in perspective, Sanchez’s last reported purse was $50,000 to show and $50,000 to win, meaning that at worst Gomi will be pocketing an extra $10,000 for his efforts. As always, the weigh-ins usually have some impact on betting lines so each fighter’s opening and current odds on 5Dimes Sportsbook will be listed in parentheses). Here are notes from the weigh-ins: Both Brian Stann (opened -175, currently -270) and Wanderlei Silva (opened +145, currently +230) looked completely comfortable at 205, as neither would have had to cut much weight. Compared to their 185 selves, it seems the extra 20 pounds takes more out of Silva rather than Stann. Money has come in on Stann consistently since the line was opened, and a great deal of it has been focused on the ‘Inside the Distance’ and ‘T/KO’ props. The Mark Hunt (opened +135, currently +165) and Stefan Struve (opened -165, currently -190) staredown was pure comedy. The scales really don’t matter in this fight, as Hunt will either knock Struve out early or get submitted shortly after. If the fight does somehow have legs, Hunt looked as soft as ever, but despite his physical appearance, he hasn’t had too many cardio issues in his career (by heavyweight standards, at least). As such, the line hasn’t moved too much, although the ‘Inside the Distance’ prop for both fighters has been hammered, along with ‘T/KO’ for Hunt and ‘Submission’ for Struve. Diego Sanchez (opened -350, currently -240) simply doesn’t look good on the scales as a lightweight. Despite dropping weight, he really doesn’t look any leaner at 155 than he does at 170, which is strange. Takanori Gomi (opened +250, currently +200) looked as he always does, and will be somewhat smaller than Sanchez in the fight. The tough cut could take away one of Sanchez’s biggest advantages over Gomi, his cardio, and bettors certainly took note. The price on Sanchez dropped more than 50 cents in the hours following weigh-ins. Hector Lombard (opened -230, currently -200) is about twice as thick as Yushin Okami (opened +170, currently +170), but because he’s so short for the division, Okami is going to be far bigger come fight time. Lombard’s muscle always brings with it the concern of fatigue, and Okami is certainly capable of grinding fights out, but Lombard’s power and takedown defense will overcome those factors in many minds. Early money came in on Lombard, but since then Okami backers have been laying down their coin to bring the line back. Rani Yahya (opened -130, currently +110) is a small featherweight, but he’s one of those fighters who performs better as a small fighter at a higher weight than a big fighter at a lower weight. Mizuto Hirota (opened -110, currently -130) looked good for his first cut to 145, but that isn’t always indicative of how he’ll perform if this fight gets to the 3rd round. The line has flipped from the opener, but remains very close as there is respect for Yahya’s submission game and Hirota’s overall game. I was actually a bit surprised that Dong Hyun Kim (opened -185, currently -300) didn’t look even bigger than Siyar Bahadurzada (opened +145, currently +250). Kim will still have a size and grappling advantage in that fight, and if Siyar doesn’t land early he’ll likely be in for a long night. Bettors recognized that and jumped all over the early line to push Kim up to his current price. Riki Fukuda (opened -120, currently +105) may have looked a tad bigger on the scales than Brad Tavares (opened -120, currently -125), but this remains the closest fight on the card in most people’s minds. As expected, the line has also stayed close with Tavares emerging as the ever so slight favorite after a pick ’em opener. There were some people talking about Takeya Mizugaki (opened -210, currently -225) looking sucked in at the weigh-ins, but he didn’t look very different to me. I might be getting into America’s Next Top Model mode here, but he’s just a guy with high, prominent cheekbones. Bryan Caraway (opened +160, currently +185) has found a home at 135, as he looked well-prepared, and — perhaps more importantly for him — worry-free. While most people expect this fight to be more competitive than the opening line would indicate, it hasn’t resulted in the line moving any closer. Cristiano Marcello (opened +105, currently -120) needed the towel to get to 156, but he didn’t look particularly drained from his cut. His opponent, Kazuki Tokudome (opened -145, currently +100), might be the fighter with the most question marks on this card but at least at the weigh-ins he showed up ready to go. Money has come in on Marcello to make him a slight favorite, but overall this seems like a fight most bettors are wary of. Alex Caceres (opened +115, currently -110) — another towel user — is normally much taller and longer than his opponents at bantamweight, however Kyung Ho Kang (opened -155, currently -110) is a long 135er himself, and should mitigate some of that advantage. This remains one of the most evenly matched fights on the card. The public feels the same way, as they have taken this fight to a dead pick ’em by putting a bit more backing on Caceres. Hyun Gyu Lim (opened -230, currently -280) is a massive welterweight, and he will be much bigger than Marcelo Guimares (opened +170, currently +240) come fight time. This isn’t a shock, but it reinforces the idea that Guimares could struggle to get this fight to the ground which is where he needs it to be in order to win. Apparently the public feels the same, as the line on Lim has gotten a bit longer since the opener. If you want to check out the full video, it can be seen below (note that the weigh-ins actually start around the 7:30 mark of the video):

Written by MMA OddsBreaker

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