UFC on FOX 3 In-Progress Betting Review

Following is a live betting review for most of last Saturday’s UFC on FOX 3 event from the IZOD Center in East Rutherford, New Jersey courtesy of Several Bookmakers bookmaker Anthony.  The preliminary bouts broadcast on Facebook.com were not available for live in-progress wagering because of the time delay and unreliability of the video feeds. Fuel TV Prelims Pablo Garza vs. Dennis Bermudez: Bermudez opened the start of the bout at -125.  There was a small amount of action here as Bermudez controlled the bout from the onset and the line moved rapidly to -200.  Early in the second round, he was at -300, and before the third he was up to -3000.  A bet on Bermudez in the third was prohibitive considering he was such a large favorite.  Very few bets came in on Garza either, as he didn’t do anything offensively other than a couple up kicks from his back.  Garza’s only chance of winning in the third round was by stoppage.  Bettors didn’t think this was a reality and had no problem laying $1000 to make $33.  While that seems like a risky investment, this fight turned out to be as close to a sure thing as possible with the judges, as Bermudez coasted to a unanimous decision win. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers players won +1843 John Cholish vs. Danny Castillo: This fight took in the most volume for all the undercard bouts among in-progress wagers.  There were two reasons: the fight went the distance, and it was a close bout with neither fighter dominating in any one area.  Cholish was a -160 fave when the first bell sounded.  Action initially started coming in the way of Cholish, and he was soon at -200 and up to -250 by the beginning of the second round despite the fact that he did not look very impressive.  All the bets were on Cholish, and I had no choice but to keep raising the line in a very even round.  This was the best opportunity for those who liked Castillo in this fight to get a great price, as high as +190.  Action started to come in fast on Castillo as he started to control the pace of the fight more and get off first with the strikes.  Castillo moved quickly and went up as high as a -175 fave by the time the third round was midway through en route to earning a unanimous decision victory. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers players won +1065 Louis Gaudinot vs. John Lineker: Lineker was a -300 fave at the sound of the first bell, and wagers came in on that side once bettors witnessed the speed and accuracy he was landing on Gaudinot.  This action spiked the line up to -400 with a comeback on Gaudinot at +310.  Linkeker looked to clearly take Round 1.  At the break, several small bets started to pour in on Gaudinot and moved the line down slightly.  By the middle of Round 2 when Gaudinot had top position in Lineker’s guard and created some damage, the line had dropped to Lineker -150.  While it looked like it was going to be an interesting Round 3 with each fighter locking up one round a piece, Gaudinot proceeded to lock up a guillotine choke and ended the fight by submission in Round 2. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers players won +1589 Pascal Krauss vs. John Hathaway: At the sound of the opening horn, Hathaway was a -200 fave.  He came out and set the pace of the fight in Round 1, and by the end of the first was at -500 after taking the first round.  Here is where things got tricky for me, as I lost my video feed to the event but still had audio.  I kept the odds available just listening to Mike Goldberg and Joe Rogan call the bout.  As it sounded from the commentary, Hathaway was still controlling the bout in Round 2, the odds kept creeping up a bit, but the action continued to come in pretty evenly.  Since Hathaway had two rounds in the bag heading into the third, it didn’t sound like Pascal had enough in the tank to get the finish, so the odds spiked up to Hathaway at -3000.  Hathaway cruised to a unanimous decision win. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers house won +103 John Dodson vs. Tim Elliott and Michael Johnson vs. Tony Ferguson: Due to the torrential rains here in Costa Rica, the satellite feed was down, and I wasn’t able to offer these bouts.  It was a real shame because after watching both fights the next day, bettors would have enjoyed the in-play action since each was exciting and went the distance, allowing a full 17 full minutes of live in-progress wagering.  Most other sportsbooks will only post new odds on a bout at the round intermission.  But at Several Bookmakers, we keep the fights open and available for wagers from the opening bell until the end.  If you haven’t tried this new product yet, I highly recommend checking out the fast-paced, in-play action. The Main Card Lavar Johnson vs. Pat Barry: We opened the main card on FOX with the heavyweights.  Barry comes in at -160 to start the first round.  Barry went as high as -250 in Round 1 as he had top control and looked like he was about to pull off the first submission of his career.  The most action on this bout came in on Barry by submission at +650, and I know whoever bet that lost, but we offered a great price with a superior position for a little bit there that you had to be happy with your wager at 6½ to 1.  However, once Johnson was able to get out of trouble on the ground and get the fight back to his feet, it was not long before he connected with some solid combinations that hurt Barry and the fight was over.  In that brief time, action came in that moved the line to Johnson being favored at -125.  Not much action here at all since the fight was finished in the first round with Johnson winning by TKO. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers house won +428 Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher: Palhares opened at -220 to start the bout and quickly jumped up to -300 as he got the fight to the ground early, where he was expected to dominate and win by submission.  All the action was one-sided for Palhares at the start.  But as he had trouble getting a deep enough position to get a tap out of Belcher, the bettors started to play the underdog, dropping the line back towards the -200 mark again.  Soon enough, we saw Belcher unloading several unanswered blows to Palhares to end the fight before the end of the first round.  Again, not much action because the bout only lasted four minutes with Belcher winning by first-round TKO. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers house won +392 Josh Koscheck vs. Johny Hendricks: This co-main event fight had the most total volume on it as it was the only main card bout to go the distance.  Hendricks was at -160 at the start of the fight.  The first round was close, but according to the action that came in, bettors thought Kos was winning since they were wagering on him to make him a small fave at -150 by the end of Round 1.  I agreed with that move.  Hendricks seemed to come back, control and win Round 2 though, bringing all the action back his way to make him a -150 fave again.  Bettors were coming in heavy on Hendricks between rounds, figuring he would carry that Round 2 momentum into the third.  However, Kos came out and seemed to be getting the better of the fight in Round 3 by landing one of two takedowns.  Action came in quick on Kos, and the bettors and I both thought he was controlling the round much like he did in the first, moving him up to a -350 fave by the time the third round was over.  The third round evened out the chart for me.  I felt Kos won two of the three rounds, as did the strong majority of the betting public.  But the judges disagreed with Hendricks pulling out a lucky split decision.  If you liked Hendricks in the third, you could have been getting +280, which is why it’s time to get an account with Several Bookmakers! Betting Result: Several Bookmakers house won +196 Nate Diaz vs. Jim Miller: In this main event bout, we had Miller coming in as a -200 fave to start.  As Diaz controlled the pace of the first round, action came in on him moving the line to -200 in favor of Diaz by the end of Round 1.  Opening Round 2, Diaz continued his dominance, and the action was all on him as he was bet up to -400.  Diaz proceeded to end the fight by submitting Miller via guillotine choke at the end of Round 2, earning  Submission of the Night honors and rewarding all the bettors who backed him. Betting Result: Several Bookmakers players won +3700 Live in-progress wagering on MMA events is a new product offered by Several Bookmakers.  Even though the majority of wagers placed are small $25 bets, we do accept up to $1,000 wagers.  So if you are looking to get an edge after the fights start, the only place you can do that is at Several Bookmakers! If you have any questions about the live in-progress MMA wagering at Several Bookmakers, please feel free to contact me at Anthony@MMAoddsbreaker.com.

Written by MMA OddsBreaker

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