Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC Fight Night 73 in Nashville

Dustin OrtizUFC Fight Night 73 Date: August 8, 2015 Arena: Bridgestone Arena City: Nashville, TN The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Nasvhille, TN for the third time in promotional history this Saturday (August 8, 2015) for UFC Fight Night 73: Saint Preux vs Teixeira. The 13-fight card will get going with Fight Pass prelims at 6:30pm, with FOX Sports 2 prelims to follow at 8pm and main card action being live at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1. If interested in wagering on this fight card, all betting lines will be made available at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My Fights to AVOID betting for UFC Fight Night 73 are: Lightweight bout: Beneil Dariush (+130) vs Michael Johnson (-150) Gabe’s Thoughts: Man, this fight is hard for me to figure out and make a confident prediction on. I think there are several very realistic outcomes and feel like this co-main event is a scrap best worth not betting and just enjoying. I say avoid. Gabe’s Call: Johnson by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Middleweight bout: Derek Brunson (-390) vs Sam Alvey (+320) Gabe’s Thoughts: For a prediction, I’ll say Alvey stuns Brunson in the first round but Brunson recovers and survives, then comes back to win rounds two and three en route to a unanimous decision on the judges’ scorecards. I think Brunson’s wrestling, takedowns and top control will be the difference in this match-up and his key to victory, even though he has developed into a solid striker, as well. I could see him defeating Alvey on the feet, too, as he would be the fighter landing a higher volume of strikes. However, I think he may opt to play it safe and use his wrestling to win the fight. If he decides to stand with Alvey for 15-minutes, he will be giving Alvey 15-minutes to do what he does best, which is knock people out. I agree with Brunson being the favorite in this match-up, however I do not agree with the current betting odds. At these odds, I think this is a “dog or pass” situation and I am going to have to take a pass. If you want to bet Alvey, I would recommend taking the T/KO prop when it is available. Gabe’s Call: Brunson by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID Flyweight bout: Dustin Ortiz (-440) vs Willie Gates (+350) Gabe’s Thoughts: I lean Ortiz here and favor him to get his hand raised, but I do not agree with the current betting odds. I think this is definitely a “dog or pass” sitation and normally I would pull the trigger here, as I believe there is value, however this week I’m taking it a little bit more easy than usual. That means this is one dog I have to avoid come Saturday night, and I will probably find myself rooting for Ortiz, ‘cos it will be painful if Gates wins! I think he is a live dog but I think Ortiz has a better chance at winning. I see this fight hitting the judges’ scorecards after three closely contested rounds of action, where Ortiz takes home a decision. Gabe’s Call: Ortiz by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Written by Gabe Killian

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