RFA 27 Betting Odds

RFA 27With no UFC, Bellator, or World Series of Fighting cards this weekend, the most prominent MMA event will be taking place on Friday night as AXS TV will be showing RFA 27 starting at 10pm ET. The event from Boise, Idaho will feature local product Jesse Brock in the bantamweight main event, as he takes on Joe Murphy. Brock brings a four-fight winning streak into this bout, including a victory over WEC veteran Bendy Casimir in his most recent outing. Murphy, on the other hand, lost an exciting decision to Terrion Ware in his last outing, a bout that determined RFA’s number one contender at bantamweight. This bout could have big ramifications in the 135lb division as well, as current RFA champion Luke Sanders should have gotten the call from Sean Shelby months ago to come to the UFC. The co-main event for this card is in the flyweight division, as Czar Sklavos takes on Nick Burgos. Sklavos is well-traveled despite only having 15 pro fights, having taken on TJ Dillashaw, Mamoru Yamaguchi, Josh Sampo, and Alexis Vila, among others. Burgos has reeled off six straight wins after a 3-3 start to his career, and just defeated former RFA flyweight champion Matt Manzanares in his last bout. Other bouts on the RFA 27 main card include havyweights Jan Jorgensen and JR Lugo, featherweights Daniel Swain and Scott Thometz, and welterweight prospect Miles Hunsinger taking on Austin Miller. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for RFA 27 today at Several Bookmakers. Check them out: ——————– MAIN CARD (AXS TV, 10pm ET) Jesse Brock -130 Joe Murphy -110 Czar Sklavos -150 Nick Burgos +110 Jan Jorgensen -190 JR Lugo +150 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: Joe Murphy has shown solid skills in every area of MMA, and I think he’s at the point now where he’ll either put everything together and take the jump up to being a UFC-level fighter, or just toil on the regional circuit for the rest of his career. I think he takes his losses to Ware and Beebe as lessons and uses a slightly more urgent approach to beat Jesse Brock with his superior skills. Brock has a wrestling advantage here, so Murphy will have to be careful not to play off his back too much, but I think he’s capable of that, and I really like that he’s available at basically even money. This is the toughest fight on the card to call for me. Sklavos has plenty of high-level competition, but Burgos has been on such a roll lately, and just picked up the biggest win of his career. Both are a bit older for the 125lb weight class, meaning this is probably their last chance to make a big run, so they should each be motivated. In the end I do lean towards Sklavos, as he’s only ever been beaten by a level of flyweight above where I believe Burgos is. In the end, I think Sklavos will be able to take advantage of any scrambles to obtain position or latch on a submission. However, if this is a 15-minute striking battle, Burgos is the more dangerous fighter, so proceed with caution. It’s hard to reconcile Jan Jorgensen getting hit with almost everything Josh Copeland threw at him and the fact that I think he can still be a decent heavyweight, but this is heavyweight MMA and you have to throw logic out sometimes. Jr Lugo is a good example of that himself. Although he looks like a guy who wears a t-shirt in the pool, he moves pretty decently and has some skill in his game. If Jorgensen hasn’t improved his head movement at all, Lugo could certainly catch him with something, but I think it’s more likely that Jorgensen can be quicker to the punch and use his superior athleticism to get back in the win column. Not something I want to bet unless the line gets down to even for Jorgensen, or over +200 for Lugo.

Written by Brad Taschuk

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