One of the main card bouts at UFC Fight Night 70 is a three-round middleweight bout between Antonio Carlos Junior and Eddie Gordon. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Carlos Junior is a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100) while Gordon is a +170 underdog (bet $100 to win $170). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Carlos Junior at -210 and Gordon at +160, and there hasn’t been much action on this fight as the lines have tightened. I do believe Carlos Junior will win this fight and agree with him being the favorite. Here’s why. Carlos Junior (4-1) won TUF Brazil 3 as a heavyweight, and will be moving down to middleweight for the first time for this fight. The 25-year-old Brazilian is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking, solid wrestling, and submission ability on the mat. In his debut at the TUF Brazil 3 finale against Vitor Miranda he showed off his wrestling abilty, but in his last fight against Patrick Cummins he showed that his takedown defence needs work as he was planted on his back by a superior wrestler and lost a decision. His opponent for this bout, Gordon, is a solid wrestler in his own right, but much smaller than Cummins, so Carlos Junior’s takedown defence should hold up fine in this fight. And if it does, he should win this fight because if it stays on the feet he’s the better striker and if he can get top position on the mat he could land a submission. Carlos Junior is still young and improving, and despite the loss to Cummins I’m not ready to write him off just yet, and see him having a good showing here against Gordon in a fight he enters as a solid favorite in. Gordon (7-3) won TUF 19, defeating Dhiego Lima via knockout to win the show. Since then, though, the 31-year-old American has fallen on hard times. First he was brutally knocked out by Josh Samman with a head kick, and then in his last fight he lost a split decision to a very mediocre fighter in Chris Dempsey. It appears as though Gordon is not UFC caliber, although his fall from the top has been faster than most expected. As far as what he does well, he does have some solid wrestling for the most part and is particularly good in top control. He also has power in his hands, hence his nickname “Truck.” But after seeing all the flaws in his game, namely in his cardio, takedown defence, and chin, it’s just really hard to trust him at the moment. Gordon has some potential still, but the book appears to be out on him at this point, and unless he makes some major changes in his game it’s hard to see him winning fights at the UFC level. Both guys have been disappointing since winning TUF, but Gordon has been especially bad. It seems to me at this point the UFC realizes he’s not much of a prospect and they’re using his name value to get Carlos Junior a quality win. I’m not super high on the Brazilian, but I think he can beat lower-level middleweights, and a guy like Gordon certainly qualifies as just that. In this fight, I believe Carlos Junior will use his wrestling to take this fight to the floor and control Gordon for a decision win. I’m pretty confident in Carlos Junior here, so even at -200 I do see some value in playing him this weekend as part of a parlay.