Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night 69 in Berlin

AlanPatrickUFC Fight Night 69 Date: June 20, 2015 Arena: O2 World Arena City: Berlin, Germany The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Berlin, Germany this Saturday, June 20th for UFC Fight Night 79: Jędrzejczyk vs Penne. The event will feature 11 bouts in entirety, with a four-fight main card kicking off at 3pm ET and seven-fight preliminary card getting going at 12pm ET. If interested in wagering on this parlay, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs for UFC Fight Night 69 in Berlin: Featherweight bout: Dennis Siver (-170) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri (+150) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Kawajiri should be a slight favorite heading into this contest, so I like him for a value play at his current underdog tag of +150. Should the fight hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision, I see the Japanese veteran doing enough to score at least two out of three rounds to pick up the nod from the judges’. That said, I think he has a decent chance of submitting Kawajiri, or possibly stopping him via ground and pound T/KO. I think Kawajiri’s grappling advantage will be the difference in this 145-pound contest, whether he finds the finish on the mat or grinds out a decision. Gabe’s Call: Kawajiri by Submission (rear naked choke, 4:45 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Kawajiri (+150) 2u to win 3u Lightweight bout: Alan Patrick (+145) vs Mairbek Taisumov (-165) Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, I see Patrick grinding Taisumov against the cage and scoring takedowns here and there for the majority of 15 minutes of action en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Gabe’s Call: Patrick by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Patrick (+255) 4u to win 10.2u Featherweight bout: Niklas Backstrom (-230) vs Noad Lahat (+190) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this fight is much closer than the betting odds currently indicate. All week I was leaning with Backstrom to win the fight, while eyeing Lahat for a value play as a live dog. However, after looking more into the fight, I feel it is a 50/50 coin-flip. At his current betting price of +190, I see enough value in Lahat to make a move. My prediction is that he nearly gets finished in the first round, but survives and comes back to win the second and third for a unanimous 29-28 decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. Gabe’s Call: Lahat by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Lahat (+190) 1.6u to win 3.04u Middleweight bout: Antonio Dos Santos, Jr. (+190) vs Scott Askham (-230) Gabe’s Thoughts: To put it simply, I think the Brazilian has an advantage in power heading into this 185-pound contest and see him knocking Askham out in under 2 minutes of action, despite the fact that the Brit has never been finished in his professional mixed martial arts career. Gabe’s Call: Dos Santos, Jr. by T/KO (punch, 0:48 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Dos Santos, Jr. (+190) 3.5u to win 6.65u

Written by Gabe Killian

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