UFC Fight Night 68 Opening Odds Breakdown: Tim Boetsch vs. Dan Henderson

Henderson-Boetsch UFC Fight Night 68: Boetsch vs. Henderson Date: June 6, 2015 Location: New Orleans, Louisiana Venue: Smoothie King Center Broadcast: FS1 UFC Middleweight Tim Boetsch Tim Boetsch (18-8) has long been a guy who has been counted out by bettors, but with a 9-7 record in the UFC he’s performed better than expectations for the most part, with many of his wins coming as an underdog. At 34, he’s still a competitive middleweight fighter, someone who can beat all the mid-tier fighters but someone who loses to the elite. He is 6-4 as a middleweight, but his losses have only come to top-15 fighters. And a knockout win over Brad Tavares keeps him ranked. Boetsch is known for his knockout power and his durability. He’s a solid fighter and is a tough out for anyone. When he takes on Dan Henderson at UFC Fight Night 68, he’ll likely be fighting for his job as he’s just 2-4 over his last six fights, but with a win he’ll retain his top-15 standing and will be in line for some exciting fights in the near future. UFC Middleweight Dan Henderson If you know MMA, you know Dan Henderson (30-13). He won an old-school UFC tournament back in 1998, defeated Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira to win a RINGS tournament in 2000, he was the Pride Middleweight and light heavyweight champ, captured the Strikeforce light heavyweight champ title before beating Fedor Emelianenko in an epic heavyweight bout, and has quite simply participated in some of the most legendary fights in the history of the sport, including a war with Shogun Rua at UFC 139. However, he is now 44 and his career is winding down. Once one of the top fighters at both 205lbs and 185lbs, Henderson has fallen on hard times as of late, losing five of his last six fights, including stoppage losses in his last three defeats. While he was once known for his amazing chin, he’s coming off of a quick TKO loss to Gegard Mousasi and it appears his once legendary chin is completely gone. He still has power, as he showed in his rematch with Shogun, but other than the H-bomb, he doesn’t bring much to the table these days. He has returned to 185lbs in an effort to reignite his career, but without TRT he doesn’t look like the same fighter, and with a loss to Tim Boetsch at UFC Fight Night 68, he’ll probably hang them up. Opening Fight Night 68 Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Boetsch a -170 favorite (bet $170 to win $100) while Henderson opened as a +130 underdog (bet $100 to win $130) at Several Bookmakers. This is one of the weakest main events the UFC has put on in a while, but it’s only the headliner because Daniel Cormier vs. Ryan Bader was pulled from the card. If it was one of the main card bouts that would be fine, but as a five-round headliner it’s very weak. That being said, it should be a decent scrap for what it is. Boetsch is one of those guys who everyone always counts out but time and time again he has come around to surprise us, such as when he KOed Yushin Okami and Brad Tavares. However, he is only 2-4 over his last six fights and is at risk of being cut. Henderson, on the other hand, is a legend of the sport but he’s fallen on hard times as of late, losing five of his last six bouts. If he loses this fight, retirement (or Bellator) is sure to happen. This is not an easy fight to call, but Boetsch is likely the right lean here. He’s the younger fighter and he’s performed much better at middleweight compared to Henderson, who historically has fared better as a 205lber. It’s a fight that really could go either way, but considering the state of Henderson’s chin and his age, Boetsch enters as the favorite.

Written by Adam Martin.

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