KSW 31 Betting Odds

KSW 31Before the scene shifts to Las Vegas on Saturday night, Polish promotion KSW will return to the Ergo Arena in Gdansk for KSW 31. Perhaps the most successful national promotion in MMA, KSW has added a strong Polish stable of fighters in with some theatrical elements of MMA to make for a consistently entertaining show. KSW 31 features middleweight champion Michal Materla making his fourth defense of the belt against UFC veteran Tomas Drwal. Materla has won 9 of his last 10 bouts, and won a trio of fights against Jay Silva 2-1 to avenge his only loss in that stretch. Early in his career, the majority of Materla’s wins came via submission, but he has developed his striking and can just as easily win a fight that way now. Despite a career dating back to 2004, and 26 fights to his name, this will be the first time Tomas Drwal has competed in KSW. He is best remembered for his UFC run from 2007 to 2010, where he went 3-3 and boasted a three-fight winning streak at one point. Drwal has won all four of his bouts since leaving the UFC, and 12 of his 21 overall victories have come by way of TKO. The biggest draw in Polish MMA is also on this card, as Mariusz Pudzianowski fights a UFC or Pride veteran for the fifth consecutive bout. This time Rolles Gracie gets the honor of locking up with the former World’s Strongest Man. Gracie will be the most accomplished grappler Pudzianowski has faced, but his technique will have to outdo more power than it has likely ever faced. While Pudzianowski has carved out a niche for himself in Poland, Karol Bedorf is the organization’s heavyweight champion. While he won’t be defending his title on this card, he will be in action against Bellator and K-1 veteran Peter Graham. Bedorf is likely on the shortlist of fighters the UFC will want to add to their roster for another trip to Poland. The theme this weekend is dual title cards, as KSW also has their 205lb belt on the line. Former Bellator light heavyweight champion Attila Vegh will face UFC veteran Goran Reljic for the light heavyweight title that was vacated when Jan Blachowicz left KSW. Vegh has not competed since dropping his belt to Emanuel Newton in March 2014, while Reljic has gone 6-1 since being cut from the UFC. Given their styles, this could be a tepid affair, but it is a quality bout nonetheless. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting lines for these four KSW 31 bouts, as well as two additional main card fights today at Several Bookmakers. Take a look: ——————– MAIN CARD (Internet PPV, 1pm ET) KSW Middleweight Title Tomas Drwal -130 Michal Materla -110 Mariusz Pudzianowski -270 Rolles Gracie +190 Karol Bedorf -585 Peter Graham +385 Jay Silva -170 Aziz Karaoglu +130 Tomasz Narkun -140 Karol Celinski +100 KSW Light Heavyweight Title Attila Vegh -270 Goran Reljic +190 ——————– Brad’s Analysis: I lean a little bit towards Tomas Drwal in the main event, because I think he has a better chance of finishing the fight. Materla has a good sub game, but Drwal has only been submitted by Rousimar Palhares in the past 10 years. Materla on the other hand, was recently stopped by Jay Silva with strikes, and I think Drwal hits just as hard. I think this will be a competitive fight throughout, so if it goes to decision it will be a coinflip. In a situation like that, the fighter with the better chance to stop the bout gets the edge in my books. Rolles Gracie can win this fight if he gets on top in the first 2 or 3 minutes. After that — and this is becoming something I’m saying far too often — Pudzianowski will actually have the cardio advantage. Once Pudzianowski survives the early threat, he can get on top and pound Gracie out, or get the decision which has already been marked down on the Polish cards. Peter Graham got submitted by Mighty Mo. Now he’s facing a heavyweight who can actually wrestle and grapple a bit. Graham is a bigger dog than I’ve ever seen him in an MMA fight, but given the skill sets, it makes sense that he would be. I’m staying away from Silva/Karaoglu and Narkun/Celinski, although I lean the favorites in both cases. I do like Vegh to beat Reljic and become the new light heavyweight champion. He may not be the more talented fighter in each individual area than Reljic, but he puts it all together better. However, the inactivity Vegh displays at times is enough to keep me away from him at the opening price. If Reljic gets some support and the line moves under 2-to-1, I’ll probably put something on Vegh, but for now it’s a pass.

Written by Brad Taschuk

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