One of the prelims at UFC Fight Night 65 is a three-round women’s strawweight bout between Bec Rawlings and Lisa Ellis. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, Rawlings is a -165 favorite (bet $165 to win $100) while Ellis is a +145 underdog (bet $100 to win $145). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up Rawlings at -260 and Ellis at +180, and bettors are all over the dog Ellis. I disagree with the action on Ellis as I like Rawlings to win this fight. Here’s why. Rawlings (5-4) is 0-1 in the UFC with a decision loss to Heather Clark. The 26-year-old Aussie was a contestant on TUF 20 prior to entering the UFC, losing a decision to top-ranked strawweight Tecia Torres on the show. Rawlings previously competed in Invicta, where she went 1-2 with a submission win over Jasminka Cive and decision losses to Carla Esparza and Mizuki Inoue. Rawlings is known as a very game fighter who is extremely tough to finish. She is a very scrappy fighter and makes her opponents for for the full three rounds, or in the case of the Esparza fight, five rounds. Rawlings doesn’t excel in any area of the game, but she is fairly well-rounded with good boxing skills on the feet and an underrated submission attack on the ground. She also has fantastic cardio and a good chin. Her wrestling is the weakest part of her game, though, and it’s the reason she lost to Clark in her debut. Still, she is young and improving and now that she’s training at Alliance MMA in California, the improvements will come quicker than before. She needs a victory here over Ellis to keep her job in the UFC, and despite the bettors fading Rawlings in this spot I actually think this is a decent matchup for her to get a win as long as she doesn’t get taken down and controlled on the mat. Ellis (15-9) is 0-1 in the UFC with a submission loss to Felice Herrig. Prior to entering the Octagon, the 32-year-old American competed on TUF 20, where she lost to Jessica Penne by submission. Ellis is a submission specialist who has won 11 of her 15 career victories by tapout. She is very good when she gets top position and even on her back she throws up submission attempts. However, while she is a good offensive grappler, her defensive grappling is quite bad. She can be taken down and controlled on the ground, and her submission defence is terrible, having tapped out six times to strikes in her career. Her striking is also quite poor. Basically, she’s a one-trick pony. On the plus, she has a lot of experience against top-level fighters and has been competing in the sport for a long time. Of course, that also means the damage is adding up, and at this point of her career it’s make or break. She needs a win not only to stay in the UFC, but to remain motivated to fight, but going into Australia against Hyatt that won’t be an easy feat to accomplish, which is why she’s the underdog here. It’s hard to trust Rawlings after she lost to Clark on the show, but I think this is a really good matchup stylistically for her to get back on track. Ellis has good subs, but that’s it. As long as Rawlings doesn’t get tapped out in the first round, I don’t see how she loses this fight. She should have the wrestling skills to defend Ellis’ takedowns, keep this fight standing, and either outpoint her opponent on the feet or possibly even knock her out. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors her considering Ellis’ bad cardio and the fact she took this fight on short notice. The fight is also in Rawlings’ backyard of Australia. Basically everything is adding up to Rawlings getting her hand raised, and considering the price dropped nearly 100 cents on her since the opener because the pubic is betting Ellis, I think at this point it’s worth considering making a play on the Aussie to get the job done.