One of the prelims at UFC 186 is a three-round lightweight bout between Olivier Abuin-Mercier and David Michaud. According to the current betting lines available at Several Bookmakers, OAM is a -350 favorite (bet $350 to win $100) while Michaud is a +290 underdog (bet $100 to win $290). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened up OAM at -380 and Michaud at +260, and so far small action has come in on the dog Michaud. I do like OAM to win this fight but the current odds seem to high to make a bet on him. Here’s why. OAM (5-1) was the runner up on TUF Nations. The 26-year-old Canadian is 1-1 in the UFC with a submission win over Jake Lindsey and a split decision loss to Chad Laprise in the TUF Nations Finale. OAM is an extremely slick grappler and all five of his pro wins have come by submission. He is very fun to watch on the ground and is constantly looking for the finish. His striking needs work, but with his solid ground game he’ll be able to beat a lot of the mid-tier fighters at 155lbs. And training at TriStar, he will continue to improve in all aspects of the game. I believe OAM has a lot of potential in the spot, but he has not proven his worth yet over a solid fighter, and considering the steep odds in his favor, it seems like he’s being overvalued in this fight as bettors look to fade Michaud, and while I do think OAM is likely to win, the line seems way too high in his favor considering his lack of experience. Michaud (8-1) is 1-1 in the UFC with a split decision loss to Li Jingliang and a decision win over Garett Whiteley. The 26-year-old American trains at the MMA Lab and continues to get better every time we see him. He comes from a wrestling background and since dropping down to 155lbs he has shown very good takedown ability. He absolutely dominated Whiteley in his 155lbs debut and in that fight looked extremely strong for his weight class. He has a high workrate on the ground and his ability to gain top control is key. On the feet Michaud doesn’t have very good striking, but he is aggressive and always walks forward. Michaud is never going to be champ, but he can be a solid gatekeeper at 155lbs, and this fight with OAM will tell us a lot about him. I think based on the fact both of these men are grappler this fight is going to hit the mat, and on the floor I think OAM is the slicker grappler and should be able to be in control of the fight most of the time it’s on the mat. However, if Michaud is able to sweep him off and and gain top control and win a decision I would not be shocked at all. Michaud is an underrated wrestler — probably the better pure wrestler in this matchup — and while I do think OAM is the better grappler and the better overall mixed martial artist, I don’t think laying all this juice on him is a good idea. OAM should win this fight by decision or maybe submission, but there is no value at the current odds and I think the best move here is to pass on a bet.