Buy or Sell? Upcoming Fights for March, April, May 2015

61f9e7fc98b11beda1f7427d58379565 When MMA Oddsmaker Nick Kalikas releases his opening lines at Several Bookmakers we’re often left with the question, should we place a bet now or later? After the public gets in on the action, line movement is undoubtedly going to happen. This is especially true with upcoming UFC main event participants where the lines are released well in advance. In regular article featured on I give my take on some of the current lines and whether you should buy (play it now) or sell (take a pass)? As always these lines are based off Several Bookmakers.   Joe Warren (-225) vs. Marcos Galvao (+185) – Bellator 135  (Friday)  Play: OVER 3.5 Rounds (-170)  BUY Warren currently is available at -225 (bet $225 to win $100) which is a decent price for the current Bellator bantamweight champion. Warren has won five in a row while his Brazilian foe has won three straight. This fight could end up being close like their first encounter – at Bellator 41 in 2011 – where Warren won a controversial unanimous decision.  The better bet in this championship matchup is the OVER 3.5 Rounds which currently is -170.  The 37-year old Warren has gone the distance eight times in his 15-fight career and hasn’t finished an opponent since 2013.  The Brazilian is in the same boat, where in his 23-fight career he’s gone the distance 12 times and also hasn’t finished an opponent since 2013. I expect this line to go up closer to fight time, so buy while the value on this prop is still high.  

Francis Carmont (-325) vs. Guilherme Viana (+265) – Bellator 135 (Friday) Play: Francis Carmont (-325)  SELL
UFC veteran Carmont moves up to the light heavyweight division and makes his Bellator debut Friday. The line on Carmont is currently available at -325 which for many, makes great parlay material for this card.  The Tristar product likely wins this fight, having fought the better competition and holding 32-career fights (compared to Viana’s seven) but it’s too risky to bet in my opinion. The 33-year old hasn’t won a fight since 2013 and was recently knocked out in his last fight – against Thales Leites at UFC Fight Night 49 – so it’s easy to question his durability at this stage of his career. Even though Viana is a relative unknown and has competed against relative unknown fighters, he does hold four career knockouts. In saying that, I don’t see much value in Viana either as his inexperience will undoubtedly hinder him in his matchup. My advice, stay away from this fight.

  Michael Chiesa (-345) vs. Mitch Clarke (+285) – UFC Fight Night 63 (April 4th) Play: Mitch Clarke (+285)  BUY Despite his long layoff – having not competed since a May 2014 victory over Al Iaquinta –  I see value in the Saskatoon native Clarke at the current price of +285.  The Chiesa line makes sense, he won TUF 15 and holds a height and reach advantage in this contest. However both fighters have 11-2 records, and each lightweight combatant has fought similar levels of competition throughout their career. In addition both fighters have only been finished twice on their respective 13-fight resumes, so it’s possible either can be knocked out or submitted. The 29-year old Clarke trains at arguably the better camp, having spent time at the MMA Lab in Arizona with former lightweight champion Benson Henderson. If you’re really feeling ambitions with the Canadian, the Clarke wins inside the distance prop is currently sitting at +550 might be worth a stab as well. Regardless, I do see value with Clarke at this current price and be sure to capitalize now before the line goes down.   Khabib Nurmagomedov (-235) vs. Donald Cerrone (+195) – UFC 187 (May 23rd) Play: Nurmagomedov wins by decision prop (-130) BUY Looking way ahead to the UFC 187 card, undefeated lightweight Nurmagomedov returns to the octagon – since an April 2014 victory over current UFC 155lb champion Rafael Dos Anjos – and is currently sitting at -235. The line for the popular Dagestan fighter is right where it should be, however the layoff and injuries could impact the 26-year old’s performance in this three round affair. With that said, I do believe we’ll see the AKA product emerge victorious over “Cowboy” , but I’d rather take the better value in the Numagomedov wins by decision prop which is much cheaper at -130. Through 34-career bouts, Cerrone has only been finished twice and has fought to a decision in his last three fights. Despite a perfect 6-0 octagon record, Nurmagomedov has only finished two of his opponents and like Cerrone, has gone the distance in his last three fights. With the OVER 2.5 rounds being -255, I say take Khabib by decision and get your moneys worth at the current line.  

Written by James Lynch

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