Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 58

MMA: UFC on FOX 8-Castillo-MeansUFC Fight Night 58 Date: December 20, 2014 Arena: Jose Correa Arena City: Barueri, Brazil The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Brazil this Saturday night (Dec. 20, 2014) with UFC Fight Night 58 and will be featuring 12 bouts, including a six fight main card that will be live on FOX Sports 1 at 10pm ET, with a four fight preliminary card that will precede it on the same channel at 8pm ET, and a pair of scraps preceding that on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm ET. If interested in wagering on these proposition plays, or any other plays for this fight card, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. My prop plays for UFC Fight Night 58 in Brazil are: Middleweight bout: CB Dollaway (+588) vs Lyoto Machida (-730) Machida by T/KO (-150) 1.5u to win 1u Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-280) 1.4u to win .5u Machida has a massive advantage on the feet in this bout and I believe he will use said advantage to defeat Dollaway by knockout. For a full write-up on this five round 185 pound scrap, I refer you to my fight article for the bout. Welterweight bout: Erick Silva (-310) vs Mike Rhodes (+280) Silva by Decision (+432) 1u to win 4.32u I think this is the most likely outcome to this 170 pound match-up, so I see great value in the prop at the current betting price of +432. Silva is certainly a finisher, but Rhodes is very tough, having been finished just once in his professional mixed martial arts career, and that coming against current UFC welterweight Brandon Thatch under the RFA banner. I think this fight plays out for all three rounds more often than not, and I think the Brazilian takes the nod much more often than not, especially considering the fact that this fight is in Brazil, which means he can get the decision even if he does not deserve it, as long as he remains competitive in the contest. Rhodes is a fighter with a lot of potential but he has already been defeated by two fighters who in my opinion are inferior to Silva. For a full write-up on this welterweight scrap, look for my fight article. Light Heavyweight bout: Igor Pokrajac (-310) vs Marcos De Lima (-340) Fight Won’t Start Round 2 (+114) 1u to win 1.14u Simply put, I believe De Lima is going to stop Pokrajac in the first round of action, and I think taking Fight Won’t Start Round 2 at +114 is safer than De Lima in Round 1 at +150, just in case Pokrajac catches the Brazilian with a lucky haymaker, as he has done in the past. Very slim chance that happens, but it’s better to be safe than sorry. However, if the line for De Lima in Round 1 was +200 instead of +150, I would have taken it instead, as the difference would have been worth it. Welterweight bout: Marcio Alexandre Jr (+205) vs Tim Means (-225) Means in Round 3 (+925) .2u to win 1.85u Means has the superior conditioning of the two in this welterweight contest and could see him earning a stoppage in the third round, if Alexandre fades. I expect improved cardio from the Brazilian, but at +925, it’s worth it to gamble against, especially as a hedge on your wager on Alexandre, if you’ve decided to side with the Brazilian as I have.

Written by Gabe Killian

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