Event: Bellator 82 Matchup: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525) vs. Tony Hervey (+325) Location: Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan Time: 8 p.m. (ET) How to watch: Spike.com, MTV2 TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE Name: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525) MMA Record: 20-1 Bellator Record: 0-1 Age: 23 Nationality: Russian Height: 5-11 Weight: 155 pounds Style: Striker/Submissions Camp: RusFighter Sport Club Strengths: Striking, offensive Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, length, heart Weaknesses: Takedown defense, defensive BJJ Last 5 Fights: L – Rich Clementi (SD), W – Maykel Becerra (KO), W – Len Bentley (SUB), W – Sergio Cortez (SUB), W – Thomas Deak (UD) Notable Career Wins: Doug Evans (SUB) Notable Career Losses: Rich Clementi (SD) Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Take the fight to the ground, go for submissions, avoid Hervey’s power shots TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG Name: Tony Hervey (+325) MMA Record: 15-12 Bellator Record: 0-1 Age: 26 Nationality: American Height: 5-8 Weight: 155 pounds Style: Boxing/BJJ Camp: Stealth Guard Strengths: Knockout power, toughness Weaknesses: Submission defense, usually loses to higher-level competition, has lost every decision he’s went to Last 5 Fights: W – Jorge Britto (TKO), W – Buddy Clinton (SUB), L – Mike Ricci (UD), L – Jesse Ronson (SUB), W – Brad Cardinal (TKO) Notable Career Wins: Alberto Crane (KO), Brad Cardinal (TKO), Jorge Britto (TKO) Notable Career Losses: Takanori Gomi (UD), Jesse Ronson (SUB), Mike Ricci (UD), Pat Curran (SUB) Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Look to test Sarnavskiy’s chin FIGHT BREAKDOWN, PREDICTION, PICK & BET Fight Breakdown: Alexander Sarnavskiy was the No. 1 lightweight prospect in the world, and Bellator had high hopes of him winning their latest 155-pound tournament. But after being outgrappled and losing a split decision to Rich Clementi – the first loss of his young career – Sarnavskiy needs to get back on track and prove why he’s so highly thought of. Despite the loss, the youngster is still a dangerous fighter, as he has vicious striking as well as submissions for days, backed up by his 17 stoppage victories. He’s a talented guy and has an opportunity to get back on the proverbial horse by taking out a relatively tough guy in Tony Hervey. Hervey is a decent fighter who possesses solid power in his strikers (11 of his 15 wins have come via TKO/KO) and submission ability (his other four wins have come via tapout for a 100 percent finishing ratio), but his biggest problem is he’s very beatable. With a 15-12 record, Hervey is clearly an inconsistent fighter, and the fact five of those losses came via sub and six by decision is especially worrisome against Sarnavskiy. One thing that Hervey does have going for him is that he’s faced much higher-level opponents than Sarnavskiy, but for the most part he’s suffered losses against them. Against Sarnavskiy, his best chance of winning will definitely be the knockout, but considering the Russian has never been knocked out before, that’s a tall task. Fight Prediction: Tony Hervey will try and throw the thunder at Alexander Sarnavskiy, but the Russian will be able to get a takedown at some point and finish off the American by submission. This isn’t a gimme by any means, but Bellator definitely wants to get Sarnavskiy on a winning streak, and Hervey is a decent name to add to his resume in what should be a bounce-back victory for him after the Rich Clementi debacle. Adam’s Pick: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525) but make sure to check the latest MMA odds. Adam’s Recommended Play: After Sarnavskiy’s loss to Clementi, you shouldn’t bet him at -525. Pass on this fight.