Event: Bellator 81 Matchup: Dave Jansen (-220) vs. Ricardo Tirloni (+170), Bellator Season 7 Lightweight Tournament Semifinal Location: Kingston, R.I. Time: 8 p.m. (ET) How to watch: Spike.com, MTV2 TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE Name: Dave Jansen MMA Record: 18-2 Bellator Record: 4-0 Age: 33 Nationality: American Height: 5-9 Weight: 155 pounds Style: Wrestling Camp: Sports Lab Strengths: Experienced, good wrestling, WEC vet, never been knocked out or submitted, trains with solid camp Weaknesses: Little knockout power, has lost when fighting high-level competition Last 5 Fights: W – Magomed Saadulaev (SUB), W – Jacob Kirwan (UD), W – Ashkan Morvari (SUB), W – Scott McAfee (SUB), L – Ricardo Lamas (UD) Notable Career Wins: Richard Crunkilton (UD) Notable Career Losses: Ricardo Lamas (UD), Kamal Shalorus (UD) Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Use wrestling to dictate where fight takes place, go for submissions when available TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG Name: Ricardo Tirloni MMA Record: 15-2 Bellator Record: 3-1 Age: 29 Nationality: Brazilian Height: 5-10 Weight: 155 pounds Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Muay Thai Camp: Ataque Duplo Strengths: Submissions, striking Weaknesses: Has lost when stepping up in competition, was knocked out recently Last 5 Fights: W – Rene Nazare (SUB), L – Rick Hawn (KO), W – Steve Gable (SUB), W – Mauro Chaulet (KO), W – Taedas Mendonca (UD) Notable Career Wins: Brian Cobb (SUB) Notable Career Losses: Benson Henderson (SUB), Rick Hawn (KO) Notable Career Achievements: None Keys to Victory: Use Muay Thai to bash Jansen on the feet, takedown defence, go for subs if put on back FIGHT BREAKDOWN, PREDICTION, PICK & BET The co-main event of Bellator 81 is a Season 7 Lightweight Tournament semifinal between lightweights Dave Jansen and Ricardo Tirloni. Jansen is a WEC veteran who has done very well in Bellator so far, going 4-0 with three wins via submission. Overall in his career, he’s shown that he’s dangerous on the ground, as the lifelong wrestler has seven submissions to his credit. Jansen trains at Sports Lab alongside Mike Pierce, Tyson Nam, and Ian Loveland, and he’s one of the many Oregon-area wrestlers who have made their way into MMA out of the famous Team Quest gym in Portland. He’s a tough guy, too, as he’s never been finished in his career. Tirloni, the Brazilian, is a BJJ black belt and has scored eight MMA wins via decision. But he’s also shown himself to be a solid striker, recording five victories via knockout as well. Tirloni is experienced in Bellator, and he fought one of the organization’s top lightweights in Rick Hawn, although he lost that bout via knockout. It will be interesting to see if the wrestler Jansen chooses to try and take Tirloni down to the ground, but if it stays on the feet, Tirloni has the advantage. Tirloni is experienced and well-rounded, and matched up against another game fighter in Jansen, this should be a close fight. Adam’s Fight Prediction: In a fight where both men are ground fighters, it’s possible that this fight stays standing, where Tirloni has an advantage. But if Jansen can use his wrestling pedigree to take the fight to the ground and grind it out, he can win too. I really don’t know if either guy can submit the other. It’s very evenly matched. Adam’s Pick: Dave Jansen (-220) via decision (click for updated MMA odds). Adam’s Recommended Play: I woudn’t play this fight. It’s a competitive matchup and could really go either way. It will most likely end in a 29-28 decision for either guy.