UFC 145 Picks: Betting Big Favorites Requires Big Bankroll

There are three huge favorites on Saturday’s UFC 145 betting card, and only one of them is a current champion in his weight class. That would be light heavyweight champ Jon “Bones” Jones (15-1), who is a hefty -505 fave against former title holder “Suga” Rashad Evans (+405) in the main event. But Jones will not take home the award of biggest favorite no matter how what happens in his fight against Evans (22-1-1). That’s because featherweight Mark Hominick (20-10) is -705 to snap a skid of two straight defeats when he takes on Eddie Yagin (+505) earlier in the night. Hominick was the victim of one of the fastest knockouts in MMA history at UFC 140 last December 10, as Chan Sung Jung stunned him with a counter punch and followed with a quick flurry that ended the fight after just seven seconds. Hominick had suffered a unanimous decision loss to Jose Aldo in his previous fight for the UFC featherweight championship at UFC 129 and will be out to prove he is still one of the top contenders in his weight class. Yagin (15-5-1) is also coming off a setback in his last bout against Junior Assuncao, which was also his UFC debut at UFC 135 last September 24. He had won seven of his previous eight fights before signing with the UFC, capturing the Tachi Palace Fights title with a guillotine choke submission of Joe Soto roughly six weeks earlier. Yagin’s lack of experience against top-level competition is a major cause for concern heading into his matchup with Hominick. Another monster favorite according to the UFC 145 odds is welterweight Rory MacDonald (12-1), who is -500 to defeat Che Mills (+400). MacDonald’s lone loss of his MMA career came against current UFC welterweight interim champ Carlos Condit by third-round TKO at UFC 115 on June 12, 2010. Since then, MacDonald has won two in a row, including a unanimous decision victory against Nate Diaz at UFC 129 and a first-round TKO of Mike Pyle at UFC 133 last August 6. He is viewed as one of the top young contenders in his weight class at just 22 years old. Mills (14-4, 1 No-Contest) has won his last five bouts, including his UFC debut at UFC 138 last November 5 that ended with a first-round TKO of Chris Cope, a former contestant on Season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter. He earned Knockout of the Night honors after disposing of Cope in 40 seconds and also appeared in the first episode of The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom back in 2009 where he lost to James Wilks in an elimination match. Backing all of the big favorites including Jones, Hominick or MacDonald would require a big bankroll, and losing just one of those UFC 145 bets would keep you from turning a profit. Based on the current MMA lines, you would have to wager a total of $1,710 to win only $300 if you bet on each fighter separately.

Written by Matty

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