Gabe Killian’s Three-Way Parlay for UFC Fight Night 44

Dustin-PoirierUFC Fight Night 44 Date: June 28, 2014 Arena: AT&T Center City: San Antonio, TX UFC Fight Night 44 will be live from San Antonio this Saturday night at 10pm ET on FOX Sports 1, with a four-fight preliminary card preceding it on the same channel at 8pm ET. If interested in making this parlay, or wagering on any fights or props for UFC Fight Night 44, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. Here is my three –way parlay for UFC Fight Night 44 in San Antonio… Featherweight bout: Cub Swanson (-255) vs Jeremy Stephens (+215) Gabe’s Thoughts: Generally, I think Swanson is the superior mixed martial artist and feel there’s slight value in this line. I have Swanson handicapped at -280 in this match-up, so if money comes in on him, by fight time Stephens’ might be the one who ends up with value, should he reach 3-to-1 dog odds. That would call for an arb, if you got in on Stephens’ early, and certainly a hedge for this parlay. In any case, after the other two pieces of this three teamer come through, it would be worth hedging here with Stephens, should he find a way to get the upset. When it comes down to the fight itself, I think Swanson is going to prove to be a step or two above Stephens. I think he will be too quick for him on the feet and will manage to outstrike him and possibly put him away. I think Swanson will find success in defending Stephens’ takedown attempts and possibly score takedowns of his own. I expect this to be a “coming out party” of sorts for Swanson, as he claims his spot as number-one contender for the winner of Chad Mendes vs Jose Aldo. Gabe’s Call: Cub Swanson by KO (uppercut, 4:39 round 4) Welterweight bout: Kelvin Gastelum (-380) vs Nico Musoke (+315) Gabe’s Thoughts: I am expecting to see an improved Kelvin Gastelum in this bout, as he has constantly been evolving his all-around game. Though it may be close, I think he will manage to do enough to win each round en route to a unanimous nod on the judges’ scorecards. Musoke is no slouch and is a real gamer, but I am a believer in The Ultimate Fighter season 17 winner. I played him as a +350 underdog against Urijah Hall and had predicted he would win the show from the start of the season. Gabe’s Call: Kelvin Gastelum by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Flyweight bout: Ray Borg (-400) vs Shane Howell (+325) Gabe’s Thoughts: Howell is taking this fight on very short notice, replacing an injured Ryan Benoit. If he had a full training camp for this bout, I don’t think it would make a lick of difference, as I would see it having the same outcome. I think Borg’s grappling to be too much for the promotional newcomer, and I expect to use it en route to securing a finish in the first stanza. Gabe’s Call: Borg by Submission (rear naked choke, 1:34 round 1) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Swanson (-255) parlayed with Gastelum (-380) and Borg (-400) for +119 5.05u to win 6.05u

Written by Gabe Killian

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UFC Fight Night 44 Fight Breakdown: Cub Swanson (-255) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+215)

UFC Fight Night 44 Play: “Brutal” Johnny Bedford (-240) vs Cody “The Renegade” Gibson (+200)