Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC 173

The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale: Chiesa v IaquintaUFC 173 Date: May 24, 2014 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, NV UFC 173 will be live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV tonight on Pay Per View starting at 10pm ET with a preliminary action kicking off at 6:30pm ET. UFC 173 comes to us with 12 scheduled bouts, including a five-fight main card that all but guarantees fireworks. If interested in wagering on the props suggested in this article, or any other props or wagers for this card, you may do so at 5Dimes Sportsbooks. My prop plays for UFC 173 are: Welterweight bout: Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger (+190) vs “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (-210) Ellenberger +3.5 (+110) 1u to win 1.1u Ellenberger by T/KO (+525) 1u to win 5.25u I favor Ellenberger to win this fight, so I see a lot of value in the +3.5 prop. 1u is the minimum I recommend wagering on this prop. If 1u is the max allowed by the book, wait until line movement to put down more. I think there is a lot of value in the Ellenberger by T/KO +525 prop, as well. Lawler has a great chin, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see “The Juggernaut” put him away. For a full write-up on this fight, please check out my fight article. Lightweight bout: Francisco Trinaldo (+110) vs Michael Chiesa (-120) Chiesa by Decision (+531) 1u to win 5.31u I predict Chiesa to win via his signature rear naked choke submission, but next to that, I would say he takes a decision. In fact, I think a decision is more likely than a submission, especially considering the Brazilian’s improved cardio, but I pick Chiesa by Submission because it is my initial gut feeling. I feel this fight could realistically play out for 15 minutes, with Chiesa doing enough to win at least two rounds and taking home a decision. At +531, I see a ton of value in the prop. To read my full write-up on this bout, please refer to my fight article. Lightweight bout: Katsunori Kikuno (+255) vs Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson (-280) Ferguson by Decision (+180) 1u to win 1.8u I think this is going to be mostly a Boxing vs Karate match-up for the majority of three rounds. I see this fight hitting the judges’ scorecards, and I favor “El Cucuy” to take the nod due to his high volume of strikes, not to mention 10 inch reach advantage. Bantamweight bout: Chico “King” Camus (+295) vs Chris “Holds it Down” Holdsworth (-325) Holdworth by T/KO (+735) 1u to win 7.35u Holdsworth Inside the Distance (-130) 1.3u to win 1u I don’t see any way Camus can win this bout outside of an injury or disqualification. I disagree with anybody who feels he could outstrike Holdsworth for the majority of 15 minutes to pick up a decision or possibly stop him. I feel if the fight plays out on the feet, the Team Alpha Male product will stop him there. If it hits the mat, he will stop him there. I think Holdsworth will be dominant in this match-up, and feel confident he will pull off his second consecutive Octagon finish. Please check out my fight article for the bout.

Written by Gabe Killian

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