Gabe Killian’s Plays for the Bellator 120 PPV Card

Bellator 120Bellator 120 Date: May 17, 2014 Arena: Landers Center City: Southaven, MI Bellator will be live on Pay Per View for the first time in the promotions history with Bellator 120 in Southaven, MI. The main card will go live at 10pm ET. If interested in wagering on these fights, you may do so at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my plays for the Pay Per View card… Light heavyweight bout: King Mo Lawal (+188) vs Rampage Jackson (-205) Gabe’s Prediction: I think this could be a close fight, with both men finding some success. I think Rampage will score some points on the feet, and King Mo will score some on the mat. When it hits the judges’ scorecards, it will depend on where the majority of the fight took place; on the feet or on the mat. I lean with Rampage keeping it on the feet long enough to get the job done. I won’t be surprised to see him stop King Mo with an uppercut or something, but I think more often than not, this one plays out for all 15 minutes. Gabe’s Call: Rampage by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-165) 1.65u to win 1u Lightweight title bout: Michael Chandler (-1000) vs Will Brooks (+800) Gabe’s Prediction: I think Chandler gets his hand raised, but this line is all out of wack. I think Brooks’ chances of winning this fight are much greater than the huge line of +800 suggests, so for that reason I will be taking making a very small play on him. This might be the only Will Brooks bet I’ve ever made that loses. I took Saad Awad against him in a huge upset, then took him in the rematch. I also took Brooks over Sarnavskiy as an underdog and that paid off. The previous fights I had a good feeling who would get his hand raised, but this time around presents a different situation. Instead of playing Brooks because I think he wins, I am simply backing him for the value I am getting with the +800 betting line. I think a fighter as talented as Brooks should not be +800 against anyone in the lightweight division, including the UFC. Perhaps the line is as high as it is because Brooks is taking this fight on very short notice. Even so, the kid has too much talent, so getting him at +800 against anybody is tough to pass up. Gabe’s Call: Chandler by Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Will Brooks (+800) .5u to win 4u Light heavyweight bout: Alexander Shlemenko (-400) vs Tito Ortiz (+355) Gabe’s Prediction: Shlemenko is a fighter who could realistically fight at 155 pounds, if he hooked up with Mike Dolce and got on a proper diet. He had to add weight to take on Ortiz, who had to cut down to make the light heavyweight limit. The size difference in this fight is huge, so I don’t know how effective the Russian’s takedown defense will be against the bigger and stronger Ortiz. I think he has a decent shot at stopping “The Huntington Beach Bad Boy” on the feet, or even outpointing him for 15 minutes, but if the fight does indeed hit the judges’ scorecards, I think there is a very good chance that Ortiz is the one getting his hand raised. I lean with Shlemenko to pick up the win, but I feel the value is with the former UFC light heavyweight champ in this scrap. Gabe’s Call: Shlemenko by TKO (body shots, 2:06, round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ortiz by Decision (+550) .5u to win 2.75u Heavyweight bout: Alexander Volkov (+120) vs Blagoi Ivanov (-130) Gabe’s Prediction: I think Volkov may win a round with his superior technical striking, but ultimately it will be Ivanov’s superior grappling that plays the difference when this bout hits the judges’ scorecards, which I favor it to do. Gabe’s Call: Ivanov by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Blagoi Ivanov (-130) 1.95u to win 1.5u and Blagoi Ivanov by Decision (+450) .5u to win 2.25u

Written by Gabe Killian

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