MMA Betting Preview: UFC on FX 6 Odds & Picks for TUF Smashes Finals

TUF SmashesUFC on FX 6 takes place this Friday night in Australia, and the main card features the two finals of “The Ultimate Fighter: Team Australia vs. Team U.K.” In the welterweight tournament final, Australian Robert Whittaker takes on Brit Brad Scott, while in the lightweight tournament finals it’s England’s Colin Fletcher against Northern Ireland’s Norman Parke. Following are breakdowns of both bouts from a betting perspective. Robert Whittaker (-125) vs. Brad Scott (-105) in TUF Smashes Welterweight Tournament Final A spot in the UFC’s welterweight division, a six-figure contract and a glass plaque are on the line when Whittaker taks on Scott in the TUF Smashes welterweight finals. Whittaker opened as a slight -125 favorite (bet $125 to win $100) with Scott a small underdog at -105. Whittaker (9-2 MMA, 2-0 TUF) is an excellent prospect who has a very bright future in the sport. In order to get to the finals, the 21-year-old knocked out both Luke Newman and Xavier Lucas in emphatic fashion and proved that he packs a powerful punch. In his pro career, Whittaker has finished all nine of his wins, including five via TKO/KO and four via submission. He is clearly a finisher, and it’s scary how much he improved by being in the TUF house. However, because of the quick finishes, we never got a chance  to see the other aspects of his game. Scott (8-1 MMA, 2-0 TUF) is another solid prospect who punched his ticket to the finals by picking up decisions over Xavier Lucas and Benny Alloway. Although the 23-year-old Brit comes from a boxing background, Scott won both his fights by taking his opponents down and doing his work there. In the stand-up in both fights, he got hit a lot, and that’s frightening when facing a guy like Whittaker who hits hard. Still, Scott is a good grappler, and if Whittaker’s takedown defense isn’t up to snuff, then Scott has the chance to grind out a decision, or maybe even pick up a decision. Ultimately, though, I was just so much more impressed with Whittaker than Scott on the show, and I believe this is his fight to lose. I see him catching Scott early on in the fight and finishing him off with a TKO due to strikes, and I like him for a bet here too. TUF Smashes Pick: Robert Whittaker (-125) via TKO (click for latest MMA odds). Colin Fletcher (-135) vs. Norman Parke (+105) in TUF Smashes Lightweight Tournament Final The TUF Smashes lightweight tournament title is on the line when the favorite Fletcher (-135) takes on Parke, who opened as a +105 underdog (bet $100 to win $105). Fletcher (8-1 UFC, 2-0 TUF) is one of the most intriguing characters to enter the UFC in years. During TUF Smashes, Fletcher was the backbone of Team U.K., as his colorful personality and antics inside the house helped everyone on his team relax and keep positive despite being locked indoors for 12 weeks. But aside from his friendliness, he’s also a great fighter, and reached the finals by taking a decision over Ben Wall and submitting Richie Vaculik. Fletcher is a massive lightweight who stands 6-foot-3 and has a reach of 81 inches, making him a difficult matchup for any 155-pounder out there. The 29-year-old has solid striking, but it’s his ground game where he excels, as his long, lanky arms are great for creating submissions, and out of his eight career pro wins, seven have come by tapout. Keep an eye on this guy. Meanwhile, Parke (16-2 UFC, 2-0 TUF) is another good prospect and was one of the favorites to win the tournament before the show started. During his run on TUF, he decisioned Richie Vaculik and Brendan Loughnane in order to reach the finals, but don’t let that record fool you as he is a finisher, as 15 of his pro wins have come via stoppage (12 submissions and three knockouts). He is very slick on the ground and has an excellent guillotine choke and rear-naked choke that he may be able to squeeze around Fletcher’s long neck if the gets an opening. He doesn’t have much striking, though, and he will have a significant reach disadvantage in this fight. This is likely to be a grappling match, and although Parke is solid in that department, it’s a dangerous game to play against a guy like Fletcher. I see Fletcher being able to sneak something in (perhaps RNC) and finish off Parke, and he should be worth a bet at the current price. TUF Smashes Pick: Colin Fletcher (-135) via submission (click for latest MMA odds).

Written by Adam Martin.

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