Gabe Killian’s Prop Plays for UFC Fight Night 36

jacare-souzaHere are my prop plays for UFC Fight Night 36… Gegard Mousasi (+195) vs Lyoto Machida (-215) Mousasi by Unanimous Decision (+1000) 1u to win 10u. If Mousasi wins a decision, there is a good chance it will be a split. That said, I am following my gut and going with unanimous for the bet. To cover my bases in case he wins a split, I like: Mousasi by Decision (+516) .5u to win 2.58u Mousasi +5.5 (-165) 8.25u to win 5u. This may be a risky play, as I stand to lose a lot if Machida finds a way to finish Mousasi. However, I really don’t see that happening. If Machida wins, I really think it will be a close decision. I am confident Mousasi will keep it a close fight, so I see this play as more of a hedge on my straight play on Mousasi, because I think even if he loses, this prop will cash and save the night. If you are not as confident as I am, then I suggest either sticking with this play, or Mousasi straight-up. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-500) vs Francis “Limitless” Carmont (+435) Souza Wins in Round Three (+550) .2u to win 1.1u. I played this at +900 and liked it a lot better then, but I think there is still some value in the line. Souza by Submission (+165) 1u to win 1.65u While I think Carmont may be able to tough it out for a couple of rounds, I think “Jacare” may eventually find the tap. That said, I would not be surprised if he gets the submission early in the first round, nor will I be surprised if Carmont makes it all three rounds. I actually think Carmont has a very good chance at going all three rounds, but for some reason I don’t really like it for a bet. I think it’s just hard to bet against “Jacare” getting the finish, especially when you expect the fight to hit the mat sooner or later. For a full write-up on this fight, please read my fight article on the bout. Nicholas Musoke (+115) vs Viscardi Andrade (-125) Musoke +3.5 (-150) 3.75u to win 2.5u Simply put, I think Musoke has a very good chance of winning at least one out of three rounds. That said, I am expecting him to win at least two rounds, and take home a decision, if not secure a second consecutive Octagon finish. Andy “Little Axe” Ogle (+510) vs Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (-615) Oliveira by Submission (-110) 1.1u to win 1u To tell you the truth, I am not overly confident in this play, and the reason I made it small may reflect that. Oliveira has said in interviews that he plans to stand and trade with Ogle, and is not afraid of being knocked out. That is not good to hear, especially considering the significant advantage he has over Ogle on the mat. It’s certainly concerning, but at the same time, I feel the fight will hit the mat sooner or later, and he will eventually find a submission. I would not be surprised if Ogle is the one to initiate the takedown, as he does not have very good fight IQ. For a full write-up on the fight, I refer you to my fight article on the bout. Cristiano Marcello (+190) vs Joe Proctor (-210) Proctor Inside the Distance (+145) 2u to win 2.9u To put it simply, I think there is a very good chance that Proctor finishes this fight. It would very likely be a T/KO, but I would not be surprised if he is able to pull off a submission over the decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black-belt, so that is the reason why I am opting with the ITD prop, rather than the T/KO. For a full write-up, you can read my fight article on the scrap. Francisco Trinaldo (-175) vs Jesse Ronson (+165) Ronson Wins in Round Three (+1725) 1u to win 17.25u Ronson +3.5 (-115) 3.45u to win 3u As usual, I expect Trinaldo to be most dangerous in the first round of action, where I think Ronson is tough and durable enough to withstand any damage. I was worried that Trinaldo may follow Michel Prazeres’ game-plan and make this a grappling heavy affair, but he has said in interviews that he plans to stand with Ronson and knock him out. That could just be talk to let Ronson think that, when what he really wants to do is wrestle and use his jiu-jitsu. In any case, I think Ronson will be able to win at least one round in this fight, especially once the Brazilian starts gassing after the first frame. I think there is a decent chance he earns a stoppage late in the fight, or even early, and if it makes it all the way to the judges’ scorecards, I could see him taking a decision victory back home to Canada. Wilson Reis (+235) vs Iuri Alcantara (-255) Reis +3.5 (+120) 1.8u to win 1.5u I think Reis can survive Alcantara’s onslaught early in the first round and manage to win at least one round in the fight. I think he can even win two and pull out the decision in an upset. There is more value in Reis straight up (+235) and especially by decision (+450) but I am going with this play, because I feel it is the safest of all three and holds great value. For a full write-up on this match-up, I refer you to my fight article. I also like a small round robin with Tumenov (-200), Tuhegov (-110), and Damm (+105). For the last event, I shared two of my parlays; a four teamer and a seven teamer. The four teamer hit, and six of seven legs of the seven teamer also hit. If you tailed both, hopefully you were wise enough to hedge after the sixth leg hit.

Written by Gabe Killian

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