UFC on FOX 10 Fight Breakdown: Eddie Wineland (-355) vs. Yves Jabouin (+265)

Eddie Wineland An exciting bantamweight bout between Eddie Wineland and Yves “The Tiger” Jabouin takes place on the preliminary card of UFC on FOX 10 this Saturday night (Jan. 25, 2014). The current betting line for this bout at Several Bookmakers lists Wineland as a -355 favorite (bet $355 to win $100), while Jabouin is a +265 underdog (bet $100 to win $265). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Wineland as a -305 fav and Jabouin as a +225 dog, meaning there has been action so far on Wineland. I definitely agree with the line movement so far as I’m picking Wineland to win this fight and to do so in impressive fashion. Here’s why. Wineland (20-9-1) is a long-time veteran of the UFC and WEC bantamweight divisions and holds notable career victories over the likes of Brad Pickett, Scott Jorgensen, and George Roop that have led to him being ranked in the top five of the division. He is known for his crisp hands and for his impeccable takedown defense. The 29-year-old just competed for the UFC bantamweight title at UFC 165 but lost via second-round TKO to champion Renan Barao. But up until that point of the fight, Wineland was actually looking really good and he arguably won the first round against Barao. That’s actually quite a feat all things considered. Wineland used his excellent boxing and long range to keep Barao away from him until Barao was able to land a spinning back kick and become the first person to finish Wineland in his career with strikes. Up until the Barao fight, Wineland had never shown signs of a fading chin and really what that fight showed me is that Barao is just that damn good, not  that Wineland is on a decline. So I really can’t even begin to fade him in this spot against Jabouin, even though Jabouin is a very good striker with TKO power. Jabouin (19-8) has surprisingly gone 4-2 in the Octagon after a stint in the WEC, including a 4-1 mark since dropping down to bantamweight. The 34-year-old is known for his varied striking techniques, especially his lethal spinning back kick, and he showed improving wrestling skills in his last outing against Dustin Pague at UFC 161. But he also showed that he isn’t that active on the ground as far as ground and pound and submissions go, and most observers felt that Pague should have won their fight based on his superior activity level on the bottom. I don’t see that being an issue against Wineland, though, as I see this fight staying standing and ultimately coming down to who is the better striker. Although Jabouin does mix in his kicks better than Wineland and is flashier, Wineland is longer, has the better hands, and he has the better chin if this turns into a firefight. Ultimately, I see Jabouin making things interesting, but coming up short. I see Wineland keeping this fight on the feet with his excellent takedown defense and cleanly outboxing Jabouin from a distance. I see the punches accumulating on Jabouin’s chin and I think at some point Wineland is going to land the knockout blow and put Jabouin away in what is likely to be one of the most entertaining scraps at UFC on FOX 10 for however long it lasts. At -355, I think Wineland actually still has some value as I just can’t see how Jabouin wins this fight outside of some flukey spinning back kick KO or a bad judges’ decision. At the current price I like the idea of a parlay between Wineland and Jeremy Stephens (-150) as I think both are very likely winners and the price is very fair. Also look for the prop on Wineland by knockout, although it wouldn’t surprise me if that prop was juiced up. The UNDER 2.5 rounds total is currently -165 and that should be looked at as well.

Written by Adam Martin.

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