MMA Odds and Ends for Tuesday: Thoughts on UFC FN 33 Opening Lines

Ryan Bader Yesterday, MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the remaining odds for the UFC Fight Night 33 main card, and for today’s MMA Odds and Ends, I’ll take a look at the openers and give my thoughts on all of them. Ryan Bader (-585) vs. Anthony Perosh (+385) In a light heavyweight contest, Ryan Bader looks to rebound from his KO loss to Glover Teixeira against Anthony Perosh, who is coming off a surprising KO over Vinny Magalhaes. This should be a fun fight for however long it lasts, but Bader has all the advantages on paper and deserves to be a huge favorite here. Still, I don’t think I would touch Bader at this price, not even in a parlay. Although he has good wrestling and power, his chin isn’t great and he has been susceptible to making mental mistakes in his fights before. Although Perosh is 41 years old and has an even worse chin, he actually does have surprising power and he has a ground game, too, so this fight isn’t as clear-cut as some are making it out to be. But while I don’t like either guy on the moneyline here, I do like one bet: the fight goes UNDER 1.5 rounds, which is currently -170. I grabbed it at the opener of -135 and I’m happy because I really see this fight ending in the first round, with either man getting knocked out. And if you want more proof that this is the right side, just look at these guys’ records — most of their combined career fights have went under this mark. So even at -170, I still like it. Pat Barry (-260) vs. Soa Palelei (+180) In a heavyweight bout, Pat Barry takes on Soa Palelei in what should be a short night for either one of these guys. Personally, while I do favor Barry, I think the opening line was out of betting range; at the same time, however, there’s no way I could touch Palelei after how bad he looked against Nikita Krylov at UFC 164. So a total pass on the moneyline here, in my opinion. The only bet I do like for this fight is UNDER 1.5 rounds, which is currently -190. I think there’s some value in that line as I see this fight almost certainly being finished in the first, with either man getting knocked out. In fact, I would be almost shocked if this fight made it past the first few minutes. Clint Hester (-145) vs. Dylan Andrews (+105) And finally, a middleweight bout between Clint Hester and Dylan Andrews rounds out of the main card. This should be a very exciting fight between two TUF 17 vets, but I have to admit I was surprised Andrews opened at +105 and I immediately made a bet on him, as I believe he is going to win this fight. The public agrees and the early action has been all over Andrews, who is now at -160. There are a lot of people that I trust as far as betting knowledge that are after Hester this weekend, but I personally don’t see it — but we’ll see how the fight plays out on Saturday night.

Written by Adam Martin.

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