Gabe Killian’s UFC 167 Main Card Plays

Nick-DiazUFC 167 Date: November 16, 2013 Arena: MGM Grand Garden Arena City: Las Vegas, N.V. The UFC 167 main card will be live on PPV starting 10 pm ET. If interested in wagering on these fights, these lines will be made available to you at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my plays for the main card: Welterweight Championship bout: Georges St Pierre (-270) vs Johny Hendricks (+230) Fight Prediction: I, like many others believe the only way Hendricks wins this fight is by knocking out GSP. However, more often than not, the result of this fight would be GSP cruising his way to a convincing unanimous decision victory, which is how I think this one will play out. Gabe’s Pick: Georges St Pierre by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Georges St Pierre (-270) and GSP by Dec (+100), moderate on both. Light Heavyweight bout: Chael Sonnen (+160) vs Rashad Evans (-185) Fight Prediction: I don’t think either of these guys are going to be looking to knock each other out. I think they will each try to win by outscoring on the feet, and wrestling. I believe Evans will find more success, but what I’m more confident in is the fight going all three rounds, regardless of who gets his hand raised. I think this will be a boring, three round affair, with Evans taking the W. Horrible match-up for UFC matchmakers to make, in my opinion, but I guess we’ll see if I’m wrong. I could be. Gabe’s Pick: Rashad Evans by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Big on Fight Goes to Decision (-225) and moderate on Evans by Decision (+140) Welterweight bout: Robbie Lawler (-300) vs Rory MacDonald (-360) Fight Prediction: I think the long-running Rory MacDonald hype train will come to a stop, but unfortunately for Robbie Lawler, he won’t be the man to stop it. Rory will keep this fight wherever he wants it, which will likely be against the cage and down on the mat, where he will look to work his ground and pound. With a win over Lawler, he will again be looking at a rematch with Carlos Condit, given Condit is successful against Matt Brown in his upcoming bout. Lawler’s only shot at beating MacDonald is by knocking him out. It is a likely possibility and has a slight chance of happening, especially considering that I don’t think RoryMac has the greatest chin. More often than not, though, I think MacDonald will be too much for the veteran and will overwhelm him. That’s what I will be banking on this Saturday night. Gabe’s Pick: Rory MacDonald by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Rory MacDonald (-360) for a MAX BET, my 8th recommended ‘max bet’ for, of which I am 7-0. I also like a BIG play on MacDonald by Decision (+165), as I find incredible value in those odds. Flyweight bout: Ali Bagautinov (+125) vs Tim Elliott (-145) Fight Prediction: This will be a fun, Fight of the Night-caliber type of back and forth bout. It will likely go the distance, and it will likely be close. Both guys are tough and extremely talented. Elliott has a big size advantage over Bagautinov, but I think the Russian has what it takes to edge this one. Gabe’s Pick: Ali Bagautinov by Split-Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Ali Bagautinov (+125) for 2u and Bagautinov by Decision (+255) for 1u. Small plays.

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