Gabe Killian’s UFC Fight for the Troops 3 Betting Recap

alexis-davisAnother very successful night of free plays to add to the long list for us at The night did not start off very strong, as we lost a recommended moderate play on Brian Houston +150 over Derek Brunson. Brunson got a flukey win connecting with an early head kick, but nonetheless, hats off to him for his impressive performance. It was significantly improved compared to his poor showing against Chris Leben in his promotional debut. The tables immediately turned, as Seth Baczynski (+100) over Neil Magny cashed for us as a big play. “Magny is faster and has more crisp striking, but I think The Polish Pistola will get the better of him, regardless of where the fight goes, but most especially in the clinch and on the mat,” I said in my prediction for the fight, and I was right on the money. Things continued to go well with Yancy Medeiros knocking out Yves Edwards in the first round and cashing my recommended Twitter bets on Medeiros by KO (+220) and Medeiros -3.5 (-135). Next up, we had a big play on Lorenz Larkin (-355) over Chris Camozzi, and we cashed that, along with a small-to-moderate play on Larkin by Dec (-145), and a recommended Twitter play on Larkin -3.5 (-205). That one played out exactly as predicted, as well, though it’s likely most MMA fans had the same prediction. The money kept pouring in, as our moderate play on Amanda Nunes (+105) over Germaine de Randamie cashed with Nunes scoring a first round TKO. Next, we cashed our Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-170) prop in the Francisco Rivera/George Roop fight, as Rivera scored a second round knockout over Roop. Along with that prop, we cashed recommended Twitter plays on Francisco Rivera (-130), Rivera wins inside distance (+220), but we lost a play on Rivera wins in Round 1 (+400). Prelims ended and the main card kicked off, where we lost a big play on Colton Smith (+145), who lost due to a second round rear naked choke by Michael Chiesa. Smith was on his way to being up two rounds to none, until being judo tossed on his head and having his back taken. It was a loss that could have easily been a win, much like with Brian Houston, except this fight was already two rounds in and Smith was winning. Along with the straight play on Smith, we lost recommended Twitter plays on Smith by Dec (+250), and Smith +3.5 (-125). Next up was a match-up between lightweight prospect Rustam Khabilov and the veteran Jorge Masvidal. I recommended a 3u play on Fight Starts Round 3 (-170) and that cashed, but unfortunately my 1u play on Masvidal +3.5 (-140) tanked. I think we were robbed on that one, as I think Masvidal at least won one round. Nonetheless, we made a nice amount of profit off of this fight. In the next bout, Yoel Romero knocked out Ronny Markes in the third round, thus allowing our bet on Yoel Romero (-185) for 3.5u to cash, though we did lose 0.5u on Markes in Round 2 (+1700) and 1u on Markes in Round 3 (+1975). Yet another fight we walked away from with a nice amount of profit. In the co-main event of the evening, we cashed a big play on Alexis Davis +178 over Liz Carmouche, as well as a MAX BET on Davis +3.5 (-135). I would have recommended a max bet on her straight-up, but the fight was in front of the military crowd, and there was a great chance it would go to a decision, and anything can happen when it goes to the scorecards. I try to recommend max bets on plays I am 99.9% confident will cash, and I knew that even if she was robbed, it would be a split decision, so we would still cash. Davis was my seventh recommended max bet for MMA Odds Breaker, and I am now 7-0 with them. “Contrary to popular opinion, I see Davis getting the better of Carmouche every which way possible en route to a convincing unanimous decision, or very possibly a finish,” I said in my prediction for the fight, and yet again I was spot-on. We lost 0.5u on Davis in Round 2 (+1225) and 1u on Davis in Round 3 (+2250), however we cashed another big play on Not Carmouche Inside Distance (-277). We were already having a ridiculously incredible night up to this point, and after this fight, we were right in $$$HEAVEN$$$. In the main event of the evening, Tim Kennedy defeated Rafael Natal by first round knockout, which was the first knockout he has scored since 2007. I predicted for him to win by knockout, while most MMA fans and media I follow on Twitter seemed to be surprised by the outcome. With the win there, we cashed big plays on Kennedy (-370), Kennedy wins inside distance (+145), Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision (-115), and Kennedy -5.5 (-180. I also recommended a Twitter play on Fight Won’t Start Round 5 (+108) and recommended adding more on Fight Doesn’t Go to Decision when it hit -150. We cashed huge on that fight, as well, and it was the perfect way to wrap up yet another unrealistically successful evening of MMA betting. If you’ve been tailing my plays since my time with MMA Odds Breaker, then you’ve surely made enough money to open up your own pizza restaurant. If that’s the case, I want my free slices for life! A successful Wednesday behind us, and hopefully a successful weekend ahead! Keep tailing and keep cashing..

Written by Gabe Killian

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