UFC Fight Night 31: Fight for the Troops 3 Date: October 19, 2013 Arena: Fort Campbell City: Fort Campbell, K.Y. Middleweight bout: Alexis Davis (+178) vs Liz Carmouche (-215) Fight Breakdown: The UFC Fight for the Troops 3 main card will feature a womens bantamweight match-up that could determine the next contender for the title. Fireworks are sure to go off when the Canadian Alexis Davis goes head to head against the US Marine Liz Carmouche. Davis is the underdog in this match-up at +178, while Carmouche is the favorite at -215 ($215 to win $100) at Several Bookmakerss. ALEXIS DAVIS (14-5 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is coming off a unanimous decision win against Rosi Sexton at UFC 161 four months ago, in what was a very lackluster performance, and some spectators even believed she lost the fight. Davis certainly did not look like herself in the match-up, and afterwards admitted she was very nervous. I personally believe it, as Octagon jitters are very real, and we are all witness to it every so often. Hopefully, all jitters and nervousness are behind her, and we will see what this veteran is capable of. The 29-year old Canadian is riding a three fight win streak that includes a third round rear naked choke submission victory over current TUF contestant Shayna Baszler. During her stint under the Strikeforce banner, she secured victories over current UFC women’s bantamweights Amanda Nunes and Julie Kedzie. Davis is very talented on the mat and is a submission ace, owning black belts in both Japanese and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. In fact, 50 percent of her professional mixed martial arts career wins have come by way of submission. To compliment her skills on the mat, she is also skilled on the feet, and her striking continues to improve fight to fight. Davis is well-conditioned and will be ready to go all the rounds against the Marine, should the fight go the distance. LIZ “GIRL-RILLA” CARMOUCHE (9-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) returns to the Octagon after following an impressive second round TKO performance over Jessica Andrade, who herself showed she’s no slouch in her very recent bout against Rosie Sexton. The Girl-Rilla looks to build on her win streak, as she has her sights set on Ronda Rousey and her women’s bantamweight title. She came close to finishing Rousey and believes she could beat her, so she wants nothing more than a rematch with the champ. Carmouche is a very strong athlete who is good at taking opponents down to the mat, controlling them there, and beating them up. She is good at putting on the pressure, and it is hard to get out from under her once she gets on top of you. She is still somewhat of a beginner in most aspects of mixed martial arts; her jiu-jitsu and her striking both need work, and she’s certainly been working on it at Team Hurricane Awesome in San Diego, C.A., as she has consistently been improving her game since the Rousey loss. She has a solid chin, excellent cardio, and will be ready for a three round war against Davis. She will have a home advantage heading into this bout, as she will be fighting in front of her fellow servicemen. Fight Prediction: Contrary to popular opinion, I see Davis getting the better of Carmouche every which way possible en route to a convincing unanimous decision, or very possibly a finish. Gabe’s Pick: Alexis Davis by Submission (rear naked choke, 3:23 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Plays: Alexis Davis (+178) for a BIG play! Davis +3.5 (-135) for a MAX BET. (“Max Bet” means either the maximum amount the book allows you to bet or the maximum amount you allow yourself to bet; the absolute maximum. I am currently 6-0 with my recommended max bets during my time at MMA Odds Breaker.) I am also BIG on Not Carmouche Inside Distance -277. I also recommend a half unit on Davis in Round 2 +1225 and a full unit on Davis in Round 3 +2250.