Free UFC Fight Night 30 Fight Picks: Lyoto Machida (-360) vs. Mark Munoz (+300)

Mark Munoz UFC Fight Night 30 Phones 4u Arena, Manchester, England Saturday, October 26, 2013 UFC middleweight bout (five rounds): Lyoto Machida (-360) vs. Mark Munoz (+300) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC Fight Night 30 is a five-round middleweight bout between Lyoto Machida and Mark Munoz. Machida is a -360 favorite (bet $360 to win $100), while Munoz is a +300 underdog (bet $100 to win $300) at Several Bookmakers. Machida (19-4) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion and will be making his long-awaited middleweight debut this weekend against Munoz. The 35-year-old Brazilian is one of the most technical and dangerous strikers in the sport of mixed martial arts, someone capable of pulling off some of the craziest strikes ever seen in the sport. At UFC 129 against Randy Couture, Machida landed the first crane kick KO in UFC history to earn himself a crack at UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones to regain the belt he lost to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 113. And while he did lost to Jones at UFC 140, he put up a good fight and was thought to be in line for another title shot after picking up wins over Ryan Bader and Dan Henderson. However, UFC asked him to take another fight, and he ended up losing the gamble as he lost a controversial decision to Phil Davis at UFC 163. After losing the fight to Davis, UFC asked Machida to move down to 185 and he accepted the offer. He was set to fight Tim Kennedy at UFC Fight Night 31, but after Michael Bisping pulled out of UFC Fight Night 30, the UFC decided to put Machida up against Bisping’s original opponent Munoz. Munoz (13-3) is one of the top middleweight fighters in the division, having only lost to top-ten ranked Chris Weidman and Yushin Okami. The 35-year-old is an exceptional wrestler, and he showed at UFC 162 against Tim Boetsch that when his body and mind are fully in synch, he is a force to be reckoned with. And that was one of the issues that Munoz was having heading into UFC 162, as he battled a nasty depression that let him to gain an extraordinary amount of weight after being KOed by Weidman at UFC on FUEL TV 4. But it was clear against Boetsch that Munoz has put those problems behind him and is ready to move on with his career. Against Machida, Munoz has an opportunity to atone for losing to Weidman, but it’s a tough match-up. Although Munoz has very good wrestling, Machida is fantastic at stopping takedowns and if Munoz can’t get the fight to the mat, he’s going to be at a significant disadvantage on the feet. We’ll see what happens this weekend, but based on everything I know, I don’t like Munoz’ chances in this one. Fight Prediction: Machida eats wrestlers for dinner with his combination of exceptional takedown defence and heavy strikes, but the problem with him is that he sometimes lacks finishing ability. However, after having the judges rob him against Davis at UFC 163, I can’t see Machida wanting that to happen again and so I do see him opening up the offence in this fight. Look for Machida to stuff Munoz’ takedowns but eventually get a brutal KO finish, somewhere in the second or third frames. Adam’s Pick: Machida via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: Based on his fighting style, I really can’t recommend a bet on Machida here at the current line of -360. At the same time, though, I can’t recommend a bet on Munoz at +300 since I don’t think he’s going to win. The one bet I am eyeing though is the prop on the fight not going the distance, which is currently -190. Since this is a five-round fight, both men will get ample chances to finish each other, so with 25 minutes to work with, I have to go with this prop as my recommend play at only -190.

Written by Adam Martin.

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