Gabe Killian’s UFC 166 Betting Recap: A Very Profitable Night

LombardflagUFC 166 produced entertaining fights from top to bottom. In fact, Dana White said it was the single best fight card in the history of the UFC. Of all the exciting bouts on the card, Gilbert Melendez vs Diego Sanchez +450 took home Fight of the Night honors, and I had recommended a 2*UNIT play on it. Those tailing made a big profit off that single play alone, but let’s get on with the fights… The night started off well with a recommended Twitter play on Andre Fili as a favorite at 2-to-1 odds. Those following me on Twitter @GabeKillianMMA hopefully tailed and cashed. Following that, we cashed big on my first bet article of the night for MMA Odds Breaker, when Tony Ferguson submitted Mike Rio via d’arce choke, after hurting him on the feet with his boxing. My recommended MAX BET on Ferguson -440 cashed, as it was only my sixth recommended “max bet” for MMA Odds Breaker, and the biggest favorite, ultimately making me a perfect 6-0 with recommended max bets. Along with the max bet, we cashed a BIG PLAY on Ferguson -3.5 -255, and a moderate play on Ferguson ITD- 105. “El Cucuy” came through for us, HUGE. I was considering betting Ferguson by T/KO at +150 instead of Ferguson ITD at -105, because I felt Ferguson would outbox Rio and hurt him with his hands, but knew there was a chance he could hurt him, then secure a sub. I played it safe, and turns out, I also played it smart, as that’s exactly what ended up happening. A personal play on Waldburger/Amagov u1.5 +165 cashed for me, followed by another personal play on Jessica Eye +170. I was going to do an article on the Amagov fight, but didn’t get a chance. I did an article on the Eye/Kaufman fight, but was not confident enough in the play to recommend it. However, my recommended big play on the over 2.5 rounds at -220 cashed, and to quote myself; “Over 2.5 rounds -220 is the best play to make on this fight and I will be big on it.” I predicted Kaufman would win a close and controversial split decision, but the judges ended up getting it right and it was Eye who actually got the split decision nod from the judges. Up next, we cashed a moderate-to-big play on Hector Lombard -160 who took a first round knockout victory over Nate Marquardt. In my article, I predicted Lombard would win by knockout at 1:49 of the first round. In the actual fight, he won by knockout at 1:48 of the first round. I was off by only a second. I’ve been off by a second or two several times, but I only recall nailing one prediction exactly, and that was Vladimir Matyushenko’s knockout victory over Jason Brilz. Along with the straight play on Lombard, I also had personal plays on Lombard by T/KO at +150, Lombard in round 1 at +240, and Under 1.5 +155 that all cashed. The Lombard victory makes me a perfect 6-0 on the night, including my one Twitter play, but not including my five personal plays that all cashed. We continued to go strong with Tim Boetsch -170 defeating CB Dollaway and cashing for us as a recommended big play. We also cashed Boetsch -3.5 for another big play, but unfortunately lost our first play of the evening (Boetsch ITD) when he was unable to stop Dollaway. We wrap-up the prelims with 8-1 in recommended bets and move on to the main card… Starting with the main card, I liked personal plays on Dodson by KO and Dodson -3.5, but did not get a chance to lock them in before the fight started. I missed on an opportunity there, as Dodson won by knockout in the very first round of action. After that flyweight bout kicked things off for the main card, two heavyweights faced off in our first losing article of the night, in which we went 1-2 with bets. I had picked Shawn Jordan to defeat Gabriel Gonzaga. I recommended a straight play on him at -225 and a play on him to win inside the distance at -134, which both tanked. Fortunately, a play on the Under 1.5 rounds at -115 came through for us, taking some of the sting off the loss here. We took our first real hit here, and considering the great night we’d been having up to that point, it was hard to do anything but keep smiling. Baby, we were still DEEP in the green! Up next was the aforementioned Fight of the Night between Gilbert Melendez and Diego Sanchez. In my article, I recommended a play on Over 2.5 rounds, because I could not visualize either fighter being stopped. I also recommended a play on Sanchez +3.5, because I predicted him winning at least one round in this fight, which he did. Unfortunately, one judge who clearly was not paying attention to the fight scored the third round for Melendez, while everybody else on the planet scored it for Sanchez. Melendez defeated Sanchez via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27), thus robbing us of the +3.5 underdog bet on Sanchez. I also recommended a small value play on Sanchez +500 on Twitter, which of course lost, along with the +3.5. It did not matter, though; the fight was still profitable, as we were pretty big on the Over. In the co-main event of the evening, another two heavyweights faced off in Daniel Cormier and Roy Nelson, in a fight Cormier dominated for three rounds en route to a unanimous 30-27 nod. After the fight, Nelson complained that Cormier refused to engage him, but in reality all Cormier did was engage him; both in the forms of wrestling and striking, and being dominant in both departments. I suppose this could only support Dana White’s theory that “Big Country” is delusional. The play I recommended for this fight was on the Over 1.5 rounds at -300. I also said to keep an eye out for Cormier by KO, in case it was released at incredibly huge odds. However, it was at only +300, so that warranted a pass. I wanted to make a play on Cormier -3.5 -245, but same as with the Dodson fight, I was not able to get the wager placed on time. If you’re counting, I’m 3-0 in bets I was seconds too late to lock in, and if you’re reading this article, chances are you know how much that stings, even when you’re having a really great night. The main event between defending Champion Cain Velasquez and challenger Junior Dos Santos was a rubber-match that lived up to all the hype. Like many fights on this card, I was spot on with my prediction for this one. “I expect the rubber-match to play out more like the re-match than their initial match-up. However, this time around, I think Velasquez has a much better chance of earning TKO stoppage,” I stated in my article. My recommended bet for this fight in my article was Fight Starts Round 2 -282, because I saw it as the best play to make on the fight and saw the absolute most value in it. On Twitter, I recommended plays on Velasquez -3.5 -135 and Velasquez by 5 round Dec +300. I knew there was a chance he would stop Dos Santos this time, but I saw value in the +300 line, so I took it. It was less than two minutes away from cashing, so I still think it was a good play, considering the odds. We ended up going 2-1 on this fight, ending the night on a very happy note. I finished the night going 7-1 in fight articles for MMA Odds Breaker and 11-5 in recommended bets. I went 2-2 in Twitter plays, profiting there as well, since both losing plays were big underdogs at +500 and +300. In total, I went 13-7 in recommended bets for UFC 166 and had a very profitable evening. This is not even mentioning the Melendez/Sanchez FOTN +450 hit for 2*UNITS, which in itself is an incredibly huge hit. It was an unbelievable night, but if you’ve been following my plays, then you know it was nothing out of the ordinary. I’ve had better nights than this, even; several of them, in fact. I do appreciate those who “tip” me via PayPal ( after winning nights, but as always, my plays can be found for free here on MMA Odds Breaker and my personal Twitter page. Those who have been tailing me since my time with MMAOB over the past few months have been cashing big, and I plan to end the year on a high note. If you haven’t been tailing me, it’s time to start. Christmas is just around the corner, and this year, I want you to let the presents be on me.

Written by Gabe Killian

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