Free UFC 166 Fight Picks: Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior dos Santos (+170)

Cain Velasquez 2 UFC 166 Toyota Center: Houston, Texas, USA Saturday, October 19, 2013 UFC heavyweight championship bout (five rounds): Cain Velasquez (-200) vs. Junior dos Santos (+170) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC 166 is a five-round fight for the UFC heavyweight championship between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos. Velasquez is a -200 favorite (bet $200 to win $100), while dos Santos is a +700 underdog (bet $100 to win $170) at Several Bookmakers. The fight is a trilogy, with the pair having split their previous two matches. Velasquez (12-1) is the UFC heavyweight champion of the world and one of the top pound-for-pound fighters on the planet. The 31-year-old is known for his incredible endurance, strong wrestling and heavy strikes, and outside of his chin it’s very hard to find a weakness in his game. He also has a terrific 10-1 record inside the Octagon that includes eight knockouts, the most T/KO wins by a heavyweight in UFC history. Back at UFC on FOX 1 in November of 2011, Velasquez put the UFC heavyweight championship on the line against dos Santos, but he was knocked out in less than a minute and lost the belt just like that. However, it was later revealed that Velasquez was injured going into the bout, and after defeating Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva at UFC 146 to earn another title shot, he fought dos Santos at UFC 155 and beat him to a pulp for five rounds, winning the heavyweight title back in the process. After having successfully defended it against “Bigfoot” at UFC 160, Velasquez will now take on dos Santos in one of the most highly-anticipated trilogy matches in UFC history. Dos Santos (16-2) lost the belt to Velasquez at UFC 155, getting beat up in the process, but he rebounded in a huge way with a spinning heel kick KO of iron-chinned Mark Hunt at UFC 160 to earn another crack at the belt. The 29-year-old is the most devastating knockout artist in the UFC heavyweight division and has seven career T/KOs while fighting in the Octagon, second only to Velasquez as far as heavyweights go. He also has exceptional takedown defence and a solid chin. Although he was able to KO Velasquez in fight one, fight two went the completely opposite way, with dos Santos getting beat down for five full rounds. Dos Santos wants his revenge now, and he wants his belt back in a bad way, and I think this trilogy match with Velasquez has all the makings of a classic. Fight Prediction: I see this fight playing out like the first fight between these two, only that it will go longer than 64 seconds. I see the fight probably ending somewhere at the end of the first or by the middle of the second, and I see dos Santos throwing his overhand right and Velasquez’ chin and putting his lights out, winning back the UFC heavyweight championship in the process. Adam’s Pick: Dos Santos via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: I do like dos Santos here, so the +170 moneyline definitely has value in my eyes. As well, I am eyeing the dos Santos wins inside the distance prop, which currently pays out a healthy +240. Remember this is a heavyweight fight, and often times it just takes one punch to end things. And with the amount of power that dos Santos has, that’s why I lean a bet on the dog in the main event of UFC 166.

Written by Adam Martin.

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