Early Thoughts on Frank Mir vs Alistair Overeem at UFC 169

Frank MirUltimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has started to put together their Super Bowl weekend extravaganza, and it has announced that Heavyweights Alistair Overeem and Frank Mir will meet on the main card. Both fighters are on losing streaks and need a win to retain some sort of relevance in the UFC Heavyweight picture. Even in a world where heavyweights are at a premium, both are at risk of getting cut by the UFC with another loss, and it has been a while since both men did anything impressive in the octagon. For Mir, he has dropped three fights in a row. Against Daniel Cormier and Junior Dos Santos, he looked slow and past his prime. To his credit, in his last outing against Josh Barnett a couple of months back, he came in a lot lighter and looked to be in top shape, but the fight was stopped two minutes in. Whether it was a fast stoppage or not, Mir did not get off again. Mir is going to need to continue his conditioning that he improved heading into the Barnett fight, and he is going to have to come into this match with a proper gameplan. Overeem has lost two fights in a row. You could almost forgive the Bigfoot Silva loss, after all, he put it to Silva for two rounds before the big guy took him out early in the third. He did lack the explosiveness and power in his strikes in that fight, as he could not take out Silva. In the Travis Browne fight, he once again showed that his striking is lacking that ‘finishing touch’ he had before serving his year long suspension for PED use. And once again, it was him who got taken out, this time at the end of the first round. And that is where Mir has to come in with a plan. It is okay to mix it up standing with Overeem a bit, because Mir is competent and has to feel he can hurt Overeem if he hits him on the chin. Overeem, for all his flaws that people have talked about since his early career in Japan, he has almost 20 wins by submission and he has only been submitted once in his career by Fabricio Werdum with a Kimura lock. This falls right into the game of Frank Mir. Though you can analyze the numbers all you want, Overeem is not a ground fighter, and Mir on the ground basically will be too sophisticated for Overeem as long as he avoids Overeem’s one-trick guillotine. Mir has snapped arms (see Tim Sylvia, Antonio Noguiera) and against Overeem, he has the potential to add another to his trophy case. In the battle on the ground, Mir’s strength and technique could net him an easy win. Of course Overeem could win easily by KO as well, and that is what both men need, an impressive win where they make it look easy against a good opponent. Where the line will open for this fight is anybody’s guess, however based on a prolonged look at both fighters and their capabilities, it is more likely Mir that walks out of this fight with a win.

Written by Miguel

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