UFC Fight Night 28 Bet: Glover Teixeira (-420) vs Ryan “Darth” Bader (+375)

UFC Fight Night 28 Date: September 4, 2013 Arena: Mineirinho Arena City: Belo Horizonte, Brazil Light Heavyweight bout: Glover Teixeira (-420) vs Ryan “Darth” Bader (+375) Fight Breakdown: The main event for UFC Fight Night 28 is a light heavyweight war between two heavy handed grapplers, as the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt Glover Teixeira faces off against the two-time All-American wrestler Ryan “Darth” Bader. Teixeira is currently the big favorite at -420 ($100 to win $420), while the kickback on the big underdog Bader is +375 ($100 to win $375) at Several Bookmakerss. GLOVER TEIXEIRA (21-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) will be making his fifth appearance inside the Octagon and with an impressive win here, will guarantee himself a shot at the UFC’s light heavyweight title. Teixeira has been on a tear since signing with the organization, as he’s stopped Kyle Kingsbury, Fabio Maldonado, and Ryan Bader; and dominated Rampage Jackson for three rounds for a Unanimous Decision. The four fight UFC win streak adds to the fifteen fight win streak he had preceding it, and has now racked up an impressive nineteen wins in a row. His set-back before the big win-streak was a 2005 Decision loss to current UFC middleweight Ed Herman, which is a bit puzzling, but I suppose Teixeira hadn’t learned to quite put it all together, yet. Glover Teixeira has an excellent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game; he is very dominant from the ground position. He works great takedowns and is equally good at the ground and pound as he is securing submissions. Aside from his wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, Teixeira has solid boxing skills. He likes to imitate Mike Tyson. In fact, he’s been known to watch Mike Tyson highlights before all of his MMA fights. At nearly 34 years of age, I believe Glover Teixeira is still in his prime. He is a well-conditioned and well prepared fighter and will be ready for war when he steps into the cage tonight in front of the Brazilian crowd. RYAN “DARTH” BADER (15-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC) won season 8 of TUF and has found success in the UFC since, being one of the most successful winners to come out of the television series. Bader is coming off a fifty second submission victory over veteran Vladimir Matyushenko, which ultimately resulted in Matyushenko being cut from the promotion. Ryan Bader is a three-time PAC 10 and two-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler. He is powerful and has good takedowns. He is capable of using his wrestling to dominate strikers, as was the case with Rampage Jackson, a fight in which he beat Rampage up for ten minutes out of a fifteen minute fight. That said, he has trouble finding success getting his wrestling going against technical strikers who use their range and reach very well, as was the case in his bout against Lyoto Machida, where he ended up being knocked out at the start of the second round. To compliment his wrestling, Ryan Bader has begun to hone his boxing skills, though I don’t think it would be a good idea to stand toe-to-toe with Teixeira for too long. I think he should look to implement his wrestling right off the bat. Bader has the wrestling advantage going into this bout, but I think that’s about the only advantage he has. He will certainly be at a disadvantage when it comes to the striking and Jiu-Jitsu, not to mention reach and cardio. Fight Prediction: Contrary to popular opinion, I don’t think Glover Teixeira has a poor chin, and I don’t think he’s over-rated. In fact, I think he has a good chin, and I also think he’s the best light heavyweight in the division, next to the Champ Jon “Bones” Jones. Therefore, I don’t think Ryan Bader will be able to catch him and knock him out. I also don’t think he will be able to use his wrestling to dominate Teixeira for five rounds en route to a Decision win. And I definitely don’t think he will submit Teixeira. I believe Teixeira is an elite mixed martial artist and will run through Ryan Bader. I expect a finish within ten minutes of action; it should most realistically come within the first half of the very first round. Gabe’s Pick: Glover Teixeira by TKO (punches, 0:39 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Plays: Fight Won’t Start Round 4 -230, Fight Won’t Start Round 3 -145, & Teixeira by TKO/KO +115. Plus, Teixeira ITD -240 straight, and also in a parlay with Benavidez -3.5 -350 for -122. I am BIG on Teixeira winning this fight, especially within the first two rounds.

Written by Gabe Killian

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