Free UFC Fight Night 27 Picks: Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+210)

UFC-158 UFC Fight Night 27 Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN Wednesday, August 28, 2013 Welterweight bout (five rounds): Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+210) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC Fight Night 27 is a five-round welterweight war between Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann. Condit is currently a -250 betting favorite (bet $250 to win $100) while Kampmann is a +210 underdog (bet $100 to win $210) at Several Bookmakers. The fight is a rematch as the pair previously fought back in 2009 with Kampmann winning a controversial split decision in a fight that I, and many others, believe Condit won. Condit (28-7) is one of the best welterweights on the planet and one of the most devastating finishers in the entire sport as he’s won 26 of 28 fights by way of stoppage. The 29-year-old trains with a great camp at Greg Jackson’s and he’s worked hard to shore up his wrestling and get it on par with his vicious striking and slick BJJ, which is some of the best in the entire division. Although Condit is coming off two-straight losses, consider they were to Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks, the two best welterweights in the world. Those losses won’t hurt Condit, they will only make him grow as a martial artist and I expect his experience being in those fights to help him out significantly on Wednesday night as he looks to gain revenge against Kampmann. Kampmann (20-6) is a perennial welterweight contender as he’s one of the most well-rounded fighters with his combination of technical striking and a savvy ground game. The 31-year-old hasn’t fought since last November when he was KOed in one punch by Hendricks at UFC 154 so really he has less than a minute of cage time in over a year, with his last win coming over Jake Ellenberger in June 2012. The layoff will surely hurt him against a tireless warrior like Condit, and although Kampmann got his hand raised in their first fight, this is a bad spot for him to come back to after that long layoff and I’m not liking his chances of pulling off the W. Fight Prediction: This fight is going to be a war. For the first two rounds I see both men standing in the pocket and chucking bombs at one another to the delight of the Indianapolis crowd. But eventually all of Condit’s strikes are going to add up, Kampmann is going to wear down, and then Condit’s experience in the championship bouts will pay dividends as he finds his openings and beats up Kampmann so badly that the referee is forced to step in and stop the fight. Adam’s Pick: Condit via TKO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: Condit at-250 is a fair price to pay for him but I wouldn’t lay any more juice than that because this is still a competitive fight. Instead, I really like the prop on the fight does not go the distance, which is available at only -130. I believe there will be a finish either way so this is one of the safer ways of playing this fight and, even better, it’s half the price of the Condit moneyline.

Written by Adam Martin.

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