Middleweight bout: Brad Tavares (-400) vs Robert McDaniel (+325) Fight Breakdown: Kicking things off for the UFC Fight Night 27 main card is a middleweight fight between the always tough Hawaiian Brad Tavares and Jackson-Winklejohn MMA product Robert “Bubba” McDaniel. Tavares is currently the big favorite at -400 (bet $400 to win $100) with the return on the big underdog McDaniel being +325 (bet $100 to win $325) at Several Bookmakerss. Brad Tavares (10-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) is riding a three fight win streak, holding impressive Decision wins over Dongi Yang, Tom Watson, and Riki Fukuda. He was undefeated before a controversial Decision loss to Aaron Simpson, who has since dropped to welterweight and been released from the UFC. Tavares is a very tough fighter who has a lot of will and fights with all his heart. Like many Hawaiian fighters, Tavares has a very good chin and loves to scrap. Before signing with the UFC, all of Brad Tavares’ career wins were by stoppage; since signing with the organization, only one of five wins have come inside the distance, the rest have all gone to Decision. I would not be quick to rule him out as someone who finishes fights, though, as his opponents have been very tough and durable, having only been finished inside the distance in a combined 10 times out of 99 professional fights (7 out of 10 alone being Seth Baczynsky). Tavares was a participant in the eleventh season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he received his first unofficial career loss against current UFC welterweight Court McGee. McGee rocked him and then secured a rear naked choke for the submission victory, and moved on to the finals, which he ended up winning. Brad Tavares has great cardio and is always game for a fifteen minute war. He will be at a height and reach disadvantage in this fight but that won’t stop him from following through with his game-plan and doing damage. Robert “Bubba” McDaniel (21-6 MMA, 1-0 UFC) makes his second Octagon appearance following a third round submission win over fellow TUF 17 castmate Gilbert Smith. On the show, McDaniel was selected by Team Jones head coach Jon Jones as his number one pick, because they are training partners together at Johnson-Winklejohn MMA in Albequerque, NM. Jon Jones stated that McDaniel sometimes gets the best of him in the gym but often loses his mental edge when he steps inside a cage. That proved to be true on the show, as Bubba’s mental weakness clearly cost him his fights versus Kelvin Gastelum and Uriah Hall (in a wild-card match). McDaniel has the all around skill edge going into this bout, especially in the striking department. That said, I don’t think he can apply his tools to proper use inside the Octagon as well as Brad Tavares can. I don’t think “Bubba” likes feeling pressure and I think he will be under a lot of pressure in this fight, as Tavares will be the aggressor moving forward. Cardio is not an issue for McDaniel, he could go all three rounds and is well trained to do so in high altitude. I think the smart game-plan for McDaniel would be to keep moving while working his jab and leg kicks. I don’t see him finishing Tavares, so I think his only route to victory is outscoring Tavares en route to a Decision. For Bubba backers, I would recommend the Decision prop at +650, but really, I think you’re better off sending your money to that Prince from Nigeria who won’t stop e-mailing you. Fight Prediction: Tavares will be the aggressor, pushing the pace. McDaniel is the first opponent he’s faced that will actually quit when hurt and/or under pressure. If there is one thing Tavares is good at, it’s bringing the fight and putting on the pressure. McDaniel will try to be a hero at first but won’t be able to take hard shots from Tavares from too long. Sooner or later, I expect him bowing out and accepting a TKO defeat. Gabe’s Pick: Brad Tavares by TKO (punches and elbows, 2:10 round 2) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Brad Tavares -400 for a MAX BET. I believe he should be -1300, so I see a lot of value here. — I am also recommending a moderate play on Tavares ITD +100.
