UFC Fight Night 144 Opening Odds Reactions

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UFC Fight Night 144 takes place Saturday, February 2 at Centro de Formacao Olimpica do Nordeste in Fortaleza, Brazil. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the full odds for the card, and here they are.

UFC Fight Night 144 Opening Odds

Marlon Moraes -215
Raphael Assuncao +165

Renato Moicano -120
Jose Aldo -120

Demian Maia -155
Lyman Good +115

Max Griffin -230
Thiago Alves +170

David Teymur -145
Charles Oliveira +105

Johnny Walker -400
Justin Ledet +280

Magomed Bibulatov -405
Rogerio Bontorin +285

Taila Santos -210
Mara Romero Borella +160

Said Nurmagomedov -185
Ricardo Ramos +145

Anthony Hernandez -245
Markus Perez +175

Livia Renata Souza -185
Sarah Frota +145

Jairzinho Rozenstruik -140
Junior Albini +100

Geraldo de Freitas -135
Felipe Corales +105

And here are my initial reactions to the Fight Night 144 opening odds:

  • The main event should be a great fight between Moraes and Assuncao, both of whom are looking to get a bantamweight title shot. These two previously met in June 2017, with Assuncao edging out a split decision. Since then, Assuncao has beaten Rob Font and Matthew Lopez while Moraes beat John Dodson, Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. Assuncao is one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC but Moraes has looked great lately. I’d favor Moraes straight-up, but there might be some value here on Assuncao as the underdog.
  • The co-main event is also a great fight on paper. Moicano has looked amazing in the UFC with his only loss coming to Brian Ortega, and he’s bounced back since then with wis over Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson. Aldo, meanwhile, is arguably the greatest featherweight of all time and he recently bounced back from two losses to Max Holloway to finish Jeremy Stephens. Again, it’s a situation where I have to favor the hotter fighter in Moicano, but there might be some value on Aldo at plus money.
  • Another main card bout that I really like is Oliveira against Teymur. Oliveira is fighting at a high level right now with three straight wins by submission, but we’ve seen him break when pressured by someone who can stuff his takedowns and keep the fight standing. Enter Teymur, who is 5-0 in the UFC and who represents a difficult style matchup for Oliveira. At dog money, I’m definitely going to be betting on Teymur here.
  • Another dog I like on the main card is Good, who takes on Maia in what is a deserved step up in competition. Good is 2-1 in the UFC and in his last fight brutally knocked out Ben Saunders. Maia, meanwhile, has lost three straight fights, albeit to the top three fighters in the division in Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman. I’ve always liked Maia, but at age 41 I think he’s done, and I have to take Good at plus money.
  • The undercard features a number of fighters with minimal UFC experience. It is definitely worth digging in further to see if there’s some value on some of the dogs deep on the card. But overall I think this is a card where the main card should be targeted as the fighters on it are more proven commodities. I’m also expecting a ton of finishes on this card, so keep your eye on the inside the distance props.


Written by Adam Martin.

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