PFL 11: Championship Opening Odds Reactions

PFL 11: Championship takes place Monday, December 31 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened the odds for the card, and here they are.

PFL 11: Championship Opening Odds

Ray Cooper III -150
Magomed Magomedkerimov +110

Vinny Magalhaes -385
Sean O’Connell +265

Lance Palmer -475
Steven Siler +325

Rashid Magomedov -750
Natan Schulte +450

Philipe Lins -185
Josh Copeland +145

Abuspiyan Magomedov -260
Louis Taylor +180

Kayla Harrison -900
Moriel Charneski +500

And my initial thoughts on the opening odds are as follows:

– I like Cooper (17-4) to beat Magomederimov (22-5) to win the PFL welterweight title and the million dollar check. Cooper beat Jake Shields by knockout twice, and even though Shields is not the fighter he once was, to me that’s extremely impressive. Obviously if you look through Cooper’s record he’s lost to some fighters that no one has heard of, but this guy is a different fighter now in PFL and I wouldn’t bet against him in this spot. Magomedkerimov is on a nice seven-fight win streak and has looked good in PFL, but he doesn’t have a win over a fighter of Shields’ caliber. Give me Cooper to win this fight by knockout.

– It’s hard not to like Magalhaes (18-9, 1 NC) over O’Connell (20-10) for the light heavyweight title. Magalhaes has won four straight fights in PFL and has shown off some incredible BJJ in his last few performances. O’Connell has picked up some nice finishes in PFL as well but he basically wins his fights by being tough and having KO power. Magalhaes is far more skilled, and I expect him to get the finish in this fight.

– Similarly, I think you have to go with Palmer over Siler for the featherweight title. Palmer (16-3) is on a five-fight win streak and he beat Siler by decision in the first of those victories. Siler (32-17-1) is unbeaten in his last four fights but anyone who has paid attention to his PFL run knows he’s been lucky to advance to the finals of this tournament. Palmer’s wrestling should be enough to get him the win in this fight.

– For an underdog, I would take a look at Schulte (14-3-1) to beat Magomedov (22-2-1) for the lightweight title. Schulte went 3-0-1 in the tournament including wins over fomer UFC fighters Chris Wade and Jason High and a draw against Johnny Case. No one was talking about this guy heading into the tournament and he’s been a very pleasant surprise. Magomedov went 2-0-1 in the tournament and his only loss since 2010 was a decision defeat to Beneil Dariush in the UFC. He’s an excellent fighter, but I just feel like there’s some value and hidden upside here in Schulte, and I think he’s worth a punt at these odds.

– The Harrison (2-0) vs. Charneski (3-4) fight is a complete mismatch, and Harrison is a massive favorite for a reason. She’s one of the most dominant female prospects in the sport right now and easily the best women’s 155lbs fighter, possibly ever. Charneski has a losing record and is a tailor-made opponent for Harrison to style on. Look for Harrison to get a nice finish here.


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Written by Adam Martin.

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