Big Marley’s UFC 227 Betting Preview

If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:

GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %



Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

There is a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests available this week, where the final event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to play in it. I will be chasing those as well because we have never had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. I do think we have a fun card this Saturday and I am ready to go into this 3-week break with a winning night at UFC 227. Here are a few plays I like this weekend along with my fade of the week.

Cash Game play of the week – Demetrious Johnson ($9,400)

Demetrious Johnson is the safest play in all DFS MMA and he has the highest ceiling as well. DJ is the P4P best fight in the world (not counting Jon Jones) and he has already beat Cejudo once before. This is the first person I am plugging into my cash LU this week and I suggest you do the same. DJ is almost guaranteed to score at least 100-points in a win, and he has a -550 betting line saying he should get the win again here. Play it safe and use DJ in cash. You can stack this fight as well, but I think DJ is a must.

GPP play of the week – Thiago Santos ($9,200)

This is a great fight to target this week because it most likely will not go to a decision. Holland just fought on the Contender Series a few weeks ago and didn’t get a contract. But now he is on the PPV against one of the scariest strikers in the division. The ITD line for Santos is currently -210 and the under 1.5 rounds betting line is -160. That tells me Vegas thinks this fight ends early and Santos is the guy that should pick up the finish. At $9.2k, he easily pays that price tag off in a 1st round win and I think he has a solid shot at doing just that. I don’t care for him as much in cash game formats though because both guys have very low floors, so this is a GPP only play for me.

Underdog play of the week – Brett Johns ($7,400)

I think everyone is writing off Brett Johns after his loss to Aljo Sterling and that is why he is so cheap on DraftKings this weekend. With the wrestling style Johns brings to the table, he has 100+ upside even in a decision win. Of course, we are worried about him getting caught in a guillotine when he shoots for takedowns, but if he can avoid that I think he can win this fight and 10x his salary with a win. I don’t think Johns will want to strike with Munhoz for 15-minutes so I do believe he will be shooting for takedowns. Those takedowns could get him submitted, or they could get him a win on the scorecards. But that makes him a boom or bust play and that is why he is a solid underdog to pick in GPPs this week.

Fade of the week – Danielle Taylor ($7,500)

Even at a cheap $7.5k on DraftKings, Taylor will still need a finish to pay that price tag off with her style. She has the worst style possible for scoring DraftKings point and even if she gets a win here she could end up scoring less than some losers on the card. Taylor will be the least owned fighter in GPPs this week, so if you want to invest your money on a 115 lb woman with a “punchers chance” of winning you a GPP, then you will be very contrarian taking that route. But I have no interest in investing my money into that so I will have Taylor in 0 of my lineups this week. If I was making 150 lineups, I would still full fade Taylor here.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

Written by Kyle Marley

9x DraftKings Qualifier, MMA handicapper for MMAoddsbreaker, MMA Expert for CBSSports & SportsLine, NFL & Lead MMA coach at DFSArmy.

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