UFC on FOX 30 takes place Saturday, July 28 at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the card, and here they are.
UFC on FOX 30 Opening Odds
Dustin Poirier -145
Eddie Alvarez +105
Jose Aldo -135
Jeremy Stephens -105
Joanna Jedrzejczyk -385
Tecia Torres +265
Olivier Aubin-Mercier -120
Alexander Hernandez -120
Jordan Mein -130
Alex Morono -110
Islam Makhachev -420
Kajan Johnson +300
Hakeem Dawodu -400
Austin Arnett +280
Gadzhimurad Antigulov -145
Ion Cutelaba +105
John Makdessi -210
Ross Pearson +160
Katlyn Chookagian -155
Alexis Davis +115
Matheus Nicolau -185
Dustin Ortiz +145
Randa Markos -135
Nina Ansaroff -105
Devin Powell -170
Alvaro Herrera +130
And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC on FOX 30 opening odds:
– What a card, and where else to begin but with the main event. I just love this fight between Poirier and Alvarez, and the winner will probably get a title shot. Poirier (23-5, 1 NC) is unbeaten over his last four bouts and had arguably the best performance on his career his last time out in his KO win over Justin Gaethje. Alvarez (29-5, 1 NC) also knocked out Gaethje in his last fight to rebound from his NC with Poirier and his KO loss to Conor McGregor. This is a pretty tough one to call as both men are elite fighters fighting at a high clip. I just think Poirier is a bit more powerful with his striking and I think he has a slight edge, though I don’t have a strong lean here.
– The opening main card bout also has an interesting line as lightweight contender Aubin-Mercier and Hernandez opened as a Pick ’em, which surprised me a bit. Aubin-Mercier (11-2) has won four straight fights and brutally finished Evan Dunham in his last outing. Hernandez (8-1) has won six straight fights and knocked out Beneil Dariush in his last fight. Both guys are awesome young fighters but I feel like there’s some value here on OAM at a Pick ’em price, as he’s fought and beaten a higher level of competition.
– In preliminary card action, I was surpised to see Mein open as the favorite over Morono as I feel like this line should be flipped around. Mein (30-12) is coming off of a decision win over Erick Silva but had lost three straight fights prior to that. He’s a guy who was supposed to be the next big thing in MMA but he took way too much damage and had too many fights at a young age and it hurt his career. Morono (14-4, 1 NC) just tapped out Josh Burkman and aside from an overturned KO loss to Niko Price he’s looked really good in the UFC. I think you have to continue fading Mein, and therefore there’s value in Morono as a dog.
– Also on the prelims, I think you’ll find some value in Antigulov against Cutelaba. Antigulov (20-4) has won 14 straight fights and has finished both of his UFC opponents so far. Cutelaba (13-3, 1 NC) knocked out Henrique da Silva in his last bout but has been alternating wins and losses so far in the UFC. I think Antigulov is more solid and well-rounded and I expect him to win.
