Highly-touted submission artist, Manny Bermudez, travels to Hamburg, Germany, to face grizzled British veteran, Davey Grant, in what should be an interesting clash of styles.
It’s no secret Manny Bermudez favors jiu-jitsu as his path to victory. With an array of submissions in his arsenal, you’re always in danger when tying up. Like the UFC’s most famous opportunistic submission threat, Bryan Ortega, Bermudez can even finish you with a guillotine from a standing position. Despite his dangerous ground game, his wrestling didn’t look particularly good in his last fight. In fact, he was fortunate Albert Morales engaged him in the grappling exchanges more than he should of.
On the feet, Bermudez has some work to do. Morales was consistently able to find a home for his punches and unless Bermudez has improved dramatically, I would expect Davey Grant to have a significant striking advantage too. We saw a drop in output from Bermudez after the first round against Morales. Given that most of his victories have come by way of first round submission, I wonder what will happen if Grant is able to defend the initial onslaught and keep pushing forward in rounds two and three?
A Well-Rounded Veteran
There are no facets of Davey Grant’s game that stand out, but he’s competent everywhere. Grant isn’t great at defending takedowns, but he’s a good scrambler. If he’s taken down, I don’t think Bermudez will be able to snatch up a quick submission as he did against most of his regional opponents.
In his last fight against Damian Stasiak, Grant dominated the striking exchanges but evidently didn’t gameplan to keep the fight standing. He would be wise to avoid grappling with Bermudez at all costs. It’s worth noting that Grant is coming off a long layoff and has only fought three times since signing with the UFC in 2013. Ring rust could be a legitimate concern.
Where is the Value?
Given the elite submission credentials of Manny Bermudez, it’s no surprise he’s the favorite. However, he’s still too unproven to warrant playing his -280 moneyline. While there are definitely question marks about Davey Grant, I think his +240 moneyline is a bit disrespectful. I would cap him around +135, so there is value if you like the underdog.
Grant could absolutely win this fight with his striking edge. At the same time, it’s easy to envision Bermudez getting beaten on the feet, pulling guard and then locking up a triangle against the run of play. Fight doesn’t go to decision most likely hits, but -200 doesn’t excite me. I’ll take my chances with the underdog for a small wager.
Pick: Grant +240