If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend we have an early card on Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so I can wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and then go out and enjoy the rest of the day when the fights are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I think we should have a big edge this week if we put in the work. Most casual players will not be doing research on these names they have never heard and will just be throwing in lineups trying to get lucky and hit a big score. I will personally be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card this Sunday and I think we will see a lot of people making mistakes in cash games. Any time I think I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a fight, I like to stack it in my cash games and lock in those points. I think this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it goes to the scorecards. I think we could see multiple knockdowns as well which would help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points combined with these two guys. Let’s let everyone else make the mistakes and we can lock in a 100+ points and a win, then we only need to find another 3 wins we are confident in.
GPP play of the week – Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I think this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a win. He has a very slick submission game and if this fight goes to the ground I think he will pick up advance points quickly and find a submission. Grant has had issues with submission defense in his career and even if he is winning on the feet, he still shoots in for takedowns every fight. I think if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, Grant will eventually go for it himself and it will cost him. I think we could see a 1st round submission here and that should easily get the 10x+ we are looking for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog play of the week – Shogun Rua ($7,500)
If Shogun can win this fight he will easily pay off this price tag. He has 100-point upside and with a $7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can get there. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more times than Shogun and has fought much worse competition. I would not be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who is taking this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the past few years but I think he still has enough in the tank to possibly pull off an upset victory here. I do want exposure to both guys in GPPs, but I think you need some exposure to Rua if you’re making multiple lineups.
Fade of the week – Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have quite a few fades this week and I am going with a smaller player pool in hopes of my picks being right and I can hit the right combo. It is hard to pick one favorite fade this week but I will pick Nick Hein. I do think Nick Hein will win this fight, and I think he will use takedowns to get the decision win here. So, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings since wrestling racks up points. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with only 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He doesn’t have much finishing ability and I don’t see him getting a submission. But I think we will see 2-3 takedowns here and him grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in having any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he is my fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: