If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This week, we have a 13-fight card in Boise, Idaho. It is headlined by Junior Dos Santos vs Blagoy Ivanov, who will be making his UFC debut. DraftKings has smaller contests for this card since it is just a Fight Night card with lesser known name, but there is still well over $100k to be won. I will be chasing my fair share of that money and I hope you guys will be too. Here are a few plays I like this weekend and my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week – Alexander Volkanovski ($9,200)
I think Volkanovski is the “safest” play on this card and his -300 betting line would agree with me. That is where I will be starting my lineup this week and I will figure the rest out from there. Volkanovski averages 116.5 DK points through his first four UFC fights so he has a ton of upside as well. He could possible score more than two other winners on this card combined. I do think he is in play for GPPs as well for that reason, but he will likely be the heaviest owned fighter on the card and we don’t care about ownership as much in cash games. I would suggest paying up for the expensive price tag in your cash games and I then look for at least 3 others wins you are confident in.
GPP play of the week – Junior Dos Santos ($8,700)
JDS should be the way better striker in this fight and I think that is where the fight will take place. He could get KO’d in the opening seconds of the fight and score 0 points, but that is what makes him a GPP play instead of a cash game play. With these two Heavyweights, we should likely see a KO within the 25-minues and I think the former champion, JDS, will be the one to get it. He has great takedown defense so he should be able to keep this fight on the feet where he will have a 4-inch reach advantage to work with.
Underdog play of the week – Niko Price ($7,900)
Niko is going to be my underdog play of the week. The odds indicate that the fight should be fairly close and there is a good chance that he uses his wrestling to gain the advantage. In 5 fights he hasn’t seen a decision yet, and there is a chance it stays that way if he gets Brown to the ground. Niko has some slick submissions in his arsenal and a lot of heart. On the feet, Brown probably has the advantage with his reach, but Price does have some sneaky power too, which can’t be overlooked. All in all, I like this as a GPP play.
Fade of the week – Alejandro Perez ($9,100)
Perez is the 2nd most expensive fighter on this card and he is only $100 cheaper than Volkanovski. In my opinion, Perez will need a finish to have a shot at paying off that expensive salary and I don’t want to invest in that, personally. He has never landed more than 1 takedown in a fight and Wineland has excellent takedown defense, so we should see this fight take place on the feet. I think Perez should be the one to get his hand raised in the end but I think it will be via decision. If that is the case then he could score ~60 points in a win, and at $9.1k that isn’t going to win anybody a tournament. I will be full fading Perez this week and hoping he doesn’t get the finish and he is my official fade of the week.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: