MMA Odds and Ends for Wednesday: UFC 166 Adds Three Barnburners

Luke Rockhold Three barnburner type matchups have been added to UFC 166, making this, on paper, one of the most stacked cards of the year and one of the most stacked cards the UFC has put on in recent time. Last night, ESPN.com reported that a middleweight matchup between Tim Boetsch and Luke Rockhold will take place on the evening’s main card. The matchup between Boetsch and Rockhold pits two fighters at the bottom end of the UFC middleweight top 10 and it’s likely the fight that will keep one fighter in title contention while dumping the other one into middleweight obscurity. Even though Rockhold had a disappointing UFC debut against Vitor Belfort, I expect him to look much better against Boetsch and I believe this is actually a pretty good matchup for him, considering he’s still on the rise and Boetsch looks to be fading a bit, especially after a terrible performance against Mark Munoz at UFC 162. Look for Rockhold to open up at around -300 with the comeback on Boetsch at around +250. Even at those plus odds, I still can’t play Boetsch, even though he’s a guy who has made me money in the past as an underdog as I think Rockhold matches up really well against him and should really pick up his first UFC win this bout. The next matchup is a heavyweight bout between Shawn Jordan and Gabriel Gonzaga that promises to deliver a knockout either way. Jordan, of course, is coming off a “Knockout of the Night” winning performance against Pat Barry at UFC 161 while Gonzaga knocked out Dave Herman in only 17 seconds at UFC 162. The Advocate┬ábroke news of the matchup. I do favor Jordan slightly in this fight but it’s definitely no lock because these are heavyweights and when you have two guys in the 260-pound range throwing four-ounce gloves, someone is going to get knocked out. I expect Jordan to open up around -180 with the comeback on Gonzaga about +130 and at that price I’d pass on the moneylines and instead look for the “fight does not go the distance” prop, which I cap at about -800 and which should be available for considerably less come fight time. And finally, it’s a lightweight matchup between KJ Noons and George Sotiropoulos, a fight that was first reported by The Age. This is an intriguing matchup between two fighters who are on their last legs with Zuffa and I fully expect the loser of this fight to get their walking papers. This is a weird matchup to bet on and I recommend a pass as both guys are definite fades as this point. That being said, I favor Noons slightly and would cap him at about -130 with the comeback on Sotiropoulos at +110 or so. Silva vs. Hamill Added To UFC On FOX Sports 1 4 The UFC added a light heavyweight bout between Thiago Silva and Matt Hamill to UFC on FOX Sports 1 4, which takes place Oct. 9 in Brazil, according to MMAweekly.com. This is an interesting matchup but I’m a little confused as to why it was made considering Silva is coming off his best performance in years against Rafael Feijao and Hamill hasn’t fought since defeating Roger Hollett a year ago. I cap Silva at around -250 to win the fight with the comeback on Hamill at +200. I’ll be considering parlaying Silva in this fight because, even though he does have his flaws, he should be able to keep this fight standing and land the KO blow on Hamill’s fading chin.

Written by Adam Martin.

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