UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Date: May 12
Arena: Jeunesse Arena
City: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Here are my plays…
Women’s Bantamweight title bout: Amanda Nunes (-900) vs. Raquel Pennington (+600)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Contrary to popular opinion, I think this fight is going to play out for all five rounds. These women are friends, and I don’t believe they are going to completely put that aside when they get inside the Octagon. I think this bout will be more of a sparring session than not. I think both fighters will be somewhat hesitant. They have a history of performing in that manner before, so against each other, I think the likelihood of them doing so is greater than not. I think this fight goes all 25 minutes more often than not, so I love the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at +115. As for my official pick, I go back and forth. I believe Pennington holds tremendous value at +600 and think she is worth a play at those odds, however I think the Over holds more value, despite only being +115.
Gabe’s Call: Nunes via Split Decision (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (+115)
Welterweight bout: Ramazan Emeev (-185) vs. Alberto Mina (+170)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I like the Total of Over 1.5 rounds in this matchup at -172. I think that line holds value. I think Emeev grinds out a decision in this bout, but I could also see Mina stopping him late, though he himself has shown to fade late. Mina is a finisher, but Emeev is tough, so I don’t see him getting finished early. If he fades late, I could see Mina putting him away, at which point the Over would have already cashed.
Gabe’s Call: Ramazan Emeev by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (-172)