Bellator 199 takes place Saturday, May 12 at SAP Center in San Jose, California. The opening odds were recently released by the offshore sportsbooks, and here they are.
Bellator 199 Opening Odds
Ryan Bader -210
Muhammed Lawal +160
Jon Fitch -135
Paul Daley -105
Cheick Kongo -365
Javy Ayala +255
Aaron Pico -535
Lee Morrison +355
Carrington Banks -285
Adam Piccolotti +205
And here are my initial thoughts on the Bellator 199 opening odds: – I’ve already given my take on the Ryan Bader vs. Muhammed Lawal fight, and you can find my full breakdown by clicking here. Safe to say I favor Bader in this matchup.
– Jon Fitch vs. Paul Daley is your classic grappler vs. striker fight, and I tend to favor Fitch in this matchup. Even though he’s 40, he’s been fighting a high level as of late with four-straight wins, including a huge win over Jake Shields that I believe is a very quality victory. Daley is coming off of a huge KO over Lorenz Larkin but we’ve see him struggle with takedowns in the past, including in his losses to Rory MacDonald and Douglas Lima. I think Fitch does what Fitch does and takes Daley to the ground and wins a decision.
– The Cheick Kongo vs. Javy Ayala fight is one where I could see an upset occuring. Though Kongo is still winning fights at age 42 and is one a five-fight win streak at the moment, sooner or later his age will catch up to him. Ayala lost a decision to Roy Nelson his last time out but prior to that had won back-to-back fights by knockout, including a massive upset over Sergei Kharitonov. Ayala isn’t a great fighter by any means, but he does possess KO power, and at these odds I’d be willing to take a punt on him to beat Kongo.
– Even though the loss to Zach Freeman sticks out like a sore thumb, it’s still hard to bet against Aaron Pico against Lee Morrison. The young phenom looked amazing in his last fight against Shane Krutchen and at just 21-years-old he figures to get better and better. Morrison is on a four-fight win streak and has a ton of MMA experience, so it’s not like Bellator is giving Pico a can here, but still, you can’t bet against Pico in this spot. He should be able to win the fight by first-round knockout.
– Adam Piccolotti won his first five fights in Bellator but has lost back-to-back bouts while Carrinton Banks is 3-0 in Bellator and undefeated in his young MMA career so far. The fight is likely a bit closer than the odds indicate here considering Banks is not much of a finisher, but I still expect him to get his hand raised.