UFC on FOX 29: Alex Oliveira vs. Carlos Condit fight preview

Alex Oliveira

Age: 30
Nationality: Brazilian
MMA Record: 18-4-1, 2 NC
UFC Record: 7-3, 1 NC
Notable Wins: Will Brooks, Ryan LaFlare, Tim Means
Notable Losses: Yancy Medeiros, Gilbert Burns, Donald Cerrone
Last Fight: TKO loss to Yancy Medeiros

Fighter Profile: The Brazilian “Cowboy” came out of nowhere a few years ago and has looked great overall in the UFC as he has a winning record in the organization. He has looked absolutely terrific at times such as in his wins over Brooks and Means, fights where he looks like he may be a contender, but in other fights like his last fight against Medeiros he has shown poor defense and lost badly. Oliveira looks like he’s a high-level gatekeeper and possibly a guy who could break into the top-10 at some point though he may never be a title contender. But there’s no doubt he is an exciting fighter and he stepped up here on short notice to fight the legend Condit.

Carlos Condit

Age: 33
Nationality: American
MMA Record: 30-11
UFC Record: 7-7
Notable Wins: Nick Diaz, Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald
Notable Losses: Tyron Woodley, Georges St-Pierre, Demian Maia, Robbie Lawler
Last Fight: Decision loss to Neil Magny

Fighter Profile: A long-time contender in the UFC welterweight division, Condit’s UFC career has been a series of ups and downs he holds a .500 record in the organization. At times he has looked like world champion such as in his signature win over MacDonald but other times he’s been thoroughly dominated like in his fight againt Maia. Condit is a guy who has been in a lot of tough fights over the course of his career and the damage seems to be adding up as he’s lost three-straight bouts. He was a great fighter for many years, but has looked more like a gatekeeper as of late, and likely doesn’t have much left in the tank for his career.

Fight Breakdown: Despite Oliveira taking this fight on short notice, I still think this is a favorable matchup for him. Mostly, it’s just a fade on Condit, who I would have a hard time picking to beat many fighters at 170lbs these days. Condit came out of retirement and looked terrible against Magny and I just don’t see him looking any better here against a younger, bigger, and stronger fighter than him in Oliveira. The Brazilian has really good striking and he likely holds the wrestling advantage in this fight as well. While Condit has always had a good gas tank, he has looked a little shopworn as of late from all the wars he’s been in and the longer this fight goes I favor Oliveira. Condit might steal a round and he’s tough enough to survive but I think Oliveira bests him on the feet for a decision win.

Prediction: Oliveira via decision

Written by Adam Martin.

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